Midwest Region: Eyeing the best bets, upsets and Final Four lock

The Midwest region doesn’t feature as much mayhem as the South, but could provide some interesting matchups. Purdue, Kansas and Oregon all won their regular season conference titles, while Iowa State and Michigan won the conference tournaments. That’s five teams with power-five conference championship experience all in one bracket.

We’ll see if those teams can stay hot in the tournament.

Here’s the breakdown for the Midwest region.

Best Bets

North Carolina Central (-4) vs. UC Davis

It’s not often that I go all in on a play-in game featuring two 16 seeds, but this is a colossal mismatch. North Carolina Central is the better team. They have one of the best defenses in the country and had it not been for a ridiculous loss at the end of the regular season (against the worst team in Division I), the Eagles wouldn’t be in the play-in game. The betting public is pounding the Eagles with good reason. This one won’t be close. — Go Chalk with North Carolina Central

Vermont vs. Purdue (-8.5)

There’s not doubt that Vermont will have Purdue’s attention. The Boilermakers didn’t show up in last year’s tournament and lost in the first round. Several experts believe that will be the case again this year. Not so fast, though. Vermont doesn’t have the size to compete with Purdue. Vermont is riding a nice winning streak, but they won’t have enough offense to keep up with Purdue. — Go Chalk with Purdue

Oklahoma State (+2.5) vs. Michigan

It was a great run for Michigan in the Big 10 tournament, but much like other teams that have done similar runs, it has to end sometime. And for Michigan, that means in the first round against an athletic Oklahoma State team, that was scorching hot in the latter part of the regular season. The Wolverines will show fatigue after winning four games in four days after a plane mishap in the Big 10 tournament. The Cowboys are well rested and will relish the underdog role. — Go Against The Chalk with Oklahoma State

Rhode Island (+1) vs. Creighton

Rhode Island has plenty of talent, so there shouldn’t be much difference in this game between who has the better players. The Rams had major preseason expectations, but faltered for a bit. But I like how they took care of business down the stretch. Creighton doesn’t have its starting point guard and struggles to score at times. That’s a bad thing to have against a solid defensive team like Rhode Island. — Go Against The Chalk with Rhode Island

Ranking the Double-Digit seeds

1. No. 11 Rhode Island — Oregon scares me some in the second round, but the Rams have enough talent to compete with the best teams in the nation. They’re hot and should continue to do well in the NCAA tournament.
2. No. 10 Oklahoma State — No one is talking about the Cowboys. That’s a mistake. They won seven of eight games, before running into Iowa State twice and Kansas once at the end of the season. This is a better team than the No. 10 seed would indicate. Louisville is really good, but watch out if the Cowboys make it to the second round. They’re athletic and can score better than the Cardinals.
3. No. 13 Vermont — If they didn’t have such a tough draw in the first round, I would pick them to move on to the second round. However, the Boilermakers are tough and will be ready to play this year. If the Catamounts win, though, they should have a decent path to the Sweet 16.
4. No. 12 Nevada — They haven’t really played anybody, but have a ton of wins. My only issue is that they play small ball and have a first-round matchup with an Iowa State team that plays small ball better than any team in the country. Any other first-round matchup and I may consider moving the Wolfpack on to the second round.
5. No. 16 North Carolina Central/UC Davis — North Carolina Central was underseeded and should get past the play-in game. However, Kansas is another team that won’t look past its opponent, so the ride will end there.
6. No. 15 Jacksonville State — The Gamecocks have played some teams, but they’ve been blown out on multiple occasions. Louisville is a tough matchup for anyone, especially for a team not able to keep up with their athleticism.
7. No. 14 Iona — Oregon is dealing with injury issues, but for Iona to move on to the second round, it will take a miracle. The Ducks are still good enough to get past the Gaels and this one likely won’t be close.

Final Four Lock

Sweet 16 — No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 4 Purdue — Purdue presents some major matchup problems for the Jayhawks, which will be too tough for them to overcome. I’m not as sold on Kansas, so I’m going all in with the Boilermakers.

Sweet 16 — No. 2 Louisville vs. No. 11 Rhode Island — Rhode Island is able to capitalize on Oregon’s injury problems and makes a surprise trip to the Sweet 16. That ends, though, with the Cardinals tenacious defense.

Elite Eight — No. 4 Purdue vs. No. 2 Louisville — The Cardinals present matchup problems in each game and this is no different. Rick Pitino returns to the Final Four.