With conference play beginning, it’s time to win some money in college basketball.
There’s a few teams that have shown not only this year, but in the past few years, the ability to cover spreads on a consistent basis. Then there’s those teams that you can’t trust.
We’re taking a look at the past to guide us how to bet for the rest of the 2015-16 college basketball season.
Good Bet
Villanova, 8-4-1 ATS
The Wildcats always seem to be off the radar when it comes to the betting public putting trust in them.
We have to believe that much like most college basketball teams, Villanova is graded on its success in the NCAA tournament. It hasn’t turned out as well as it would have hoped in the last few years, likely meaning the betting public turns away from the Wildcats during the regular season.
That would be a mistake though against the spread.
Villanova is once again dominating against the spread this season, going 8-4-1 ATS. The Wildcats are 12-2 straight up, too, meaning they will be fighting for a quality seed as the season progresses.
This isn’t the first time the Wildcats have been good against the spread, though. Since 2012, no top-tier team has been better against the number than Villanova.
The Wildcats are 74-35-2 ATS in the last four seasons. That 67.9 percentage is five points better than the next power-five conference team, Utah.
Villanova led all top programs against the spread during the last two seasons. That trend seems to be continuing this season.
Bad Bet
Syracuse, 6-9 ATS
In the last four seasons, there hasn’t been many worse power-five conference teams worse than the Orange when it came to covering the spread.
And that’s especially true inside the conference.
Since 2011, Syracuse is 32-48-3 against the spread against fellow conference teams. Part of that includes time in the Big East, but since moving to the ACC, the Orange are far below .500.
Syracuse was 8-9-2 ATS in its first season in the ACC and then took a nosedive last year at 4-13-1 ATS. The Orange gets the benefit of the doubt from the public based on past successes. That perception has continued this season, with Syracuse once again under .500.
The Orange don’t have the same players they had several years ago. But the betting public hasn’t adjusted yet, so the Orange are a prime target to bet against.
Good Bet
Kansas, 9-3 ATS
Despite owning the Big 12 conference for more than decade, the betting public is still slow to the Jayhawks’ dominance against the spread.
Kansas is a consistent over .500 bet against the spread during conference games.
The last time the Jayhawks went under .500 against the spread in conference games was 2009-10. Kansas will once again challenge for the conference crown and will see big spreads. However, it has done that consistently in the past and been over .500 in conference games.
Kansas is already showing it can cover big spreads again this season. The Jayhawks are 9-3 ATS.
Bad Bet
Arizona State, 7-6 ATS
The Sun Devils haven’t been bad against the number this season, going above .500. However, Arizona State’s 10 wins aren’t against the best competition in college basketball and that schedule is about to get much tougher.
And in the past few years, the Sun Devils haven’t been any good against the number.
After a solid campaign in 2012-13, the Sun Devils have been far below .500 against the spread in the last two seasons.
Arizona State is a combined 14-23-1 in the last two season inside the Pac-12 conference. That’s a bad sign, especially considering in its lone conference game this season, the Sun Devils lost by a spread-adjusted 8.5 points and weren’t competitive in a loss to rival Arizona.
