I know we just finished off the 2016-17 college basketball season, but it’s never too early to take a glance at next season.
Bovada has released the odds for next year’s champion…and surprise…Kentucky, North Carolina, Duke and Kansas are the top four picks to win the 2018 title.
There’s zero chance I would wager on North Carolina or Kansas. I wouldn’t be surprised if North Carolina wasn’t even a top-four seed in next year’s tournament, while the Jayhawks are never a good bet to win the title. They’ll be good during the regular season and then falter in the tournament.
Kentucky is another one of those teams I can’t trust in March, while Duke is a legitimate contender, but there’s just something about the Blue Devils that I don’t like.
So all four of those teams are out when I’m looking at next year’s bracket. Here’s two more teams that are overrated heading into 2017-18 in college basketball.
Gonzaga +1400
This number is way too inflated. The Bulldogs were just in the national championship, so that’s why oddsmakers are making the mistake in putting Gonzaga with the third-best odds to win next year’s championship.
The Bulldogs are losing key pieces and likely won’t have Zach Collins and Nigel Williams-Goss back for next year. Without those players, Gonzaga won’t be near the team they were this season. And even though they got over the hump this season, that doesn’t mean next year will be the same.
See Villanova as to why getting the monkey off the back doesn’t work in back-to-back years. Gonzaga will retreat from its record-setting campaign in 2016-17 and won’t be a championship factor next year.
Villanova +1400
Villanova will be good once again in 2017-18. The Wildcats lose Big East Player of the Year Josh Hart and Kris Jenkins, but they should return four of their top six scorers, in addition to new players who should emerge as solid Big East options.
However, this year reminded me once again that some teams just don’t perform well in March. You can do it once (see Kansas), but there’s plenty of evidence to show me that the Wildcats will be that early exit from March once again.
Despite the nice pipeline happening in Villanova, it still won’t be the same team from this year during the regular season. They’ll take a step back next year and won’t make it through March.
