It feels like years ago, not months, we were having a very different conversation about Ohio State and whether or not the Buckeyes even belonged in the first four-team college football playoff. Rarely can a contender afford to lose to a middling ACC school and still find itself in the title conversation.
But that’s exactly what happened, when the Buckeyes fell by 14 to Virginia Tech in September yet eventually hopped above the likes of Baylor and TCU down the stretch. Even then, few gave Ohio State a legitimate chance to usurp Alabama or Oregon. We all know how that turned out.
If you’re a betting man (or woman), then the defending champs should have provided you with a great litmus test: In the eyes of playoff selectors, conference championships – specifically championship games – negate the worst losses.
If OSU didn’t have one last chance to rock Wisconsin for the Big-10 title, maybe we’d be talking about the defending champion Horned Frogs instead. Use this sample size to your advantage if you’re betting on this year’s eventual national champion.
Oddsmakers favor Ohio State at 12/5 to win it all, appropriately in a bottom-dweller heavy Big-10 schedule. Nick Saban’s Alabama (7/1) has put itself in the conversation each of the last six years. The Pac-12 has promising candidates in USC (15/1) and Oregon (22/1) – teams who could negate the other’s chances with one, potentially two, late-season matchups. There’s also TCU (15/1), Auburn (15/1), Baylor (15/1) and ACC favorite Clemson (25/1) to consider.
But there’s one “contender” you should approach with extreme caution.
If you’re deciding to bet on Notre Dame – who has the fourth highest preseason odds at 20/1 – you’re betting on 12-0 or bust. This for a team projected to win 10 games in 2015.
The uncertainty begins with the most important position in sports. Malik Zaire, a junior who inherits quarterback duties from transfer-out Everett Golson, is wildly unproven. Coach Brian Kelly has taken wildcards like this to the promised land before; in 2012, then freshman Golson led the Irish to an undefeated record and one of the most lopsided championship losses in NCAA history, 42-14 against the Crimson Tide.
Yes, Zaire is coming into the season riding a Music City Bowl MVP. That is his lone college start, a game in which he failed to throw for 100 yards. He can run like Golson, but his arm only shows us he can nickel and dime defenses despite having great weapons like receiver Corey Robinson.
In 2012, Notre Dame also happened to have the top ranked defense in the country (something Alabama made look like tissue paper). And, even though the Irish were the only (eligible) powerhouse to finish undefeated that year, it was still heavily debated whether they belonged in the title game.
That leads us to an external detriment working against Notre Dame. College football doesn’t want to see championship blowouts. While the Irish don’t have a cakewalk – USC, Clemson, Texas and Stanford present challenges – their inability to prove themselves against perennial conference elites like Ohio State or SEC schools leaves this team hoping the regular season schedule can maximize its full potential.
If not, by season’s end voters could be looking at a viable 11-win team that won’t have a conference trophy to show like other hopefuls. And the 2012 Bama blowout is still fresh enough in memory.
That says nothing about a schedule constructed to work against the Irish, unless they go undefeated. We have 12 games in which one bad loss – to, say, Wake Forest or Virginia – eviscerates virtually any hope of a Buckeyes-like 2014 rebound. Notre Dame won’t have a championship game to reprove itself before season’s end, either.
The potential good losses come near closing time and almost make the bad ones look desirable. If Notre Dame falls to USC or Clemson, even narrowly, this elevates direct competitors for the final four. It opens up undesirable scenarios, like the Trojans riding a win on the Irish to a loss against Oregon, another contender who could spell doom for South Bend’s hopes.
Should those good teams slip up, the Irish look less impressive. Should they win out, it distances the Irish from contention. Also note that of the teams in last year’s playoff, not one squared off against the others during the regular season.
It’s very possible that Notre Dame is a top-four team, and the season might shape up well, even with a loss. Despite some of the rough patches, the schedule is fairly favorable; there isn’t a single loss you can safely earmark.
But remind yourself that Notre Dame is working against more than just its opponents. This isn’t a defending champ; after a hot 6-0 start in 2014, the Irish endured as epic a collapse as they come, finishing with an 8-5 overall record.
In 2015, not having a conference championship heightens the next main hurdle: voters. They’re a tough sell, evidenced by the Baylor and TCU snubs last year. At least those schools can claim Big 12 regular season championships, something Notre Dame also can’t have. Talent-wise the Irish could be among the elite, yet still be left out of the dance.
Outside the favorites, there are many teams with fewer risk factors and higher payouts – Oregon, Clemson, LSU, Michigan State, Oklahoma, Florida State, to name a few.
Bet on good teams. Take chances, too. But at 20/1, Notre Dame’s odds don’t reflect the risks you’re really taking.
