The bowl season gets into full swing Dec. 29 with four games on tap for college football fans.
We’re breaking down the four games and showing what teams will cover.
Armed Forces Bowl
California (-7) vs. Air Force
The Skinny: Two contrasts in offenses will hit the field in the Armed Forces Bowl. Jared Goff is one of the nation’s best quarterbacks. Air Force employs one of the best rushing attacks in college football. Both defenses struggle, so this game could feature plenty of points. Can California get back on track? The Golden Bears are 2-5 against the spread and straight up in the last seven games, while Air Force is 9-4 against the spread this season.
Why Air Force will cover: The Golden Bears don’t play much defense and they aren’t physical enough to stop high potent rushing teams. Air Force will be able to control time of possession and keep Goff off the field. Without the ball, California will begin to press, much as it did at the end of the season, and Air Force will take advantage. Don’t forget, Air Force played well earlier this season against Michigan State.
Why California will cover: This is big-boy football. The Pac-12 was the most balanced conference this season in college football and the Golden Bears will show why the Mountain West can’t compete against the Pac-12. Goff will showcase why he’s one of the best players in college football, and California will get back on track against an inferior opponent.
Score: Air Force 39, California 35. California has been terrible in the second part of the season, while Air Force will want to be here. Don’t dismiss the power of motivation.
Russell Athletic Bowl
North Carolina (-3.5) vs. Baylor
The Skinny: Points won’t be at a premium in this game. Neither defense is very good and both teams rely heavily on their offenses to win games. The Tar Heels surprised many this season and lost only one regular season game, while the Bears battled through injuries to finish with less wins than they would have hoped.
Why North Carolina will cover: The Tar Heels are looking for respect. The offense is one of the best in the nation and still no one looks at North Carolina as one of the better teams in college football. The Tar Heels put up a fight against Clemson in the ACC title game and now the Tar Heels are looking to gain more notoriety. Now, North Carolina faces a Baylor team without their top offensive weapons, which should give North Carolina a strong edge.
Why Baylor will cover: The Bears have more talent. There’s not much room to argue that point. Sure, the Bears are missing some of their best offensive options, but Baylor’s second and third stringers would be starters on quite a few teams in college football. And don’t forget about Baylor’s defense. Sure, it’s not the best unit in college football, but at times, they’ve shown to be more than competent.
Score: Baylor 41, North Carolina 31. This spread has swung seven points since the opening line and we’re not in agreement. We like the Bears defense better than the Tar Heels, and we’re expecting Baylor to battle through injuries again.
Arizona Bowl
Nevada at Colorado State (-3)
The Skinny: These teams are pretty much exactly the same and they happen to play in the same conference. The offenses and defenses are similar in ranking.
Why Nevada will cover: Nevada will look to expose Colorado State with the running game. The Wolfpack will use that running game to control the clock and keep the Rams at bay. Nevada has been more overlooked this year than the Rams, going 7-5 against the spread.
Why Colorado State will cover: The Rams have been dominant against the Wolfpack. The Rams are 8-2 straight up in the last 10 games against Nevada and Colorado State has been hot in the last part of the season. The Rams are likely the better team and will show it once again in the Arizona Bowl.
Score: Colorado State 27, Nevada 13. This should be an easy cover for the Rams, which has owned the Wolfpack in recent years.
Texas Bowl
LSU (-7.5) vs. Texas Tech
The Skinny: Another bowl game where there is a distinct contrast in styles. LSU will use a power running game, while the Red Raiders will attempt to move the ball through the air against a stingy defense. Maybe it’s the motivation factor, but we’re surprised this game doesn’t have a bigger spread.
Why LSU will cover: The SEC vs. the Big 12. This is an opportunity for the Tigers to flex some muscle against the Red Raiders, which suffered several big defeats against the better Big 12 teams. On paper, the Tigers should wear down a far worse Red Raiders defense and Texas Tech won’t be able to move the ball to score enough points to keep up with the Tigers.
Why Texas Tech will cover: The Red Raiders aren’t getting enough respect. Texas Tech already defeated Arkansas on the road this season and did it in convincing fashion. Texas Tech has an elite passing attack that will wear down the Tigers, and despite the deficiencies on defense, LSU doesn’t have a good enough offense to score any points.
Score: LSU 38, Texas Tech 24. Texas Tech doesn’t have the defense to stop LSU. The Tigers will run all over the Red Raiders in the second half and this game will get ugly toward the fourth quarter.
