The key to winning games against the spread in college football, or the NFL for that matter, is finding specific teams that the public and oddsmakers can’t pinpoint a spread that matches their weekly play.
This happens on both extremes. There are teams like Washington State last season that went 10-3 ATS, thanks to many oddsmakers undervaluing the Cougars’ ability to compete on a weekly basis in the Pac-12. The Cougars gave gamblers heart attacks, owning a plus-3.1 margin against the spread per week. That was actually lower than their margin of victory per week of 3.8 points.
And then there’s teams that are awful against the spread, like Central Florida at 2-10 ATS last season. Bettors can use that to their advantage, too, focusing on picking against those teams that have trouble against the spread.
I’m dismissing Washington State as a beast against the spread this season, especially with such a low number adjusted against the spread. Owning a 10-3 ATS mark with only a plus-3.1 number ATS, is significantly lower than many other teams that occupy the top spots. Toledo, which owned the best percentage ATS last year at 81.8 percent, was plus 9.2 points against the spread.
I’m ditching the Cougars this season as a team to ride throughout the season. How will other teams that were money against the spread fare this season? Here’s three teams in that category and what to watch for with them this season.
Washington, 8-5 ATS
Verdict: Ditch the Huskies
Everybody is on Washington’s hype train. The Huskies are a popular pick to win the Pac-12 thanks to returning pretty much everybody on a team that surprised many pundits last season.
That shock turned to nice spreads for gamblers to exploit. The Huskies were plus-9.5 points against the spread, one of the best numbers against the spread in the nation.
The only issue is that when the schedule turned into the Pac-12, the Huskies finished the conference season at 3-3 against the spread. Washington was competitive, but oddsmakers adjusted the number to a more appropriate spread, leaving Washington as average against the spread.
I’m expecting the same thing to happen this year. The Huskies won’t catch anyone by surprise this season, leaving the spreads to be far more accurate than last season’s early lines.
Arkansas, 8-5 ATS
Verdict: Buy the Razorbacks
Head coach Bret Bielema is pretty consistent with his teams against the spread. Last year, the Razorbacks started off slow, losing four of the first six games and being atrocious against the spread in the process.
But eventually, in true Bielema fashion, the team got on a roll, allowing the Razorbacks to close on a high note in the win/loss and ATS column. That’s commonplace for Bielema, though.
In 2014, his team went 10-3 ATS. At Wisconsin, his teams were over .500 ATS in three of his final four seasons.
His only sub-.500 ATS seasons came in 2013 (his first year at Arkansas) and 2012 at Wisconsin.
Arkansas should be good, not great this season. But with Bielema, I get a coach not worried about running up the score on weaker opponents, and a team that can compete, without the stigma from the public that would attach a closer-than-expected betting line.
The Razorbacks are a consistent play and that should remain the same this season.
Mississippi, 8-5 ATS
Verdict: Buy the Rebels
Despite being one of the most consistent programs in recent years, Mississippi still doesn’t get much respect.
Oddsmakers and the public generally back away from the Rebels, which has turned out to be profitable for outside-the-box gamblers in the long run. Since 2012, the Rebels are 32-19-1 ATS.
The program should be considered a consistent winner, but it isn’t. That won’t change this year, especially with the graduation losses from last year.
But I have faith in Hugh Freeze to keep putting out a good product, making it a good strategy to back the Rebels with little expectations from outside influences.
