The picture is becoming clearer in college football after week 3. With the third week in the books, the conference seasons are starting to start in full.
With the majority of the non-conference games completed, the college football betting guides for each major conference went 5-5 last week, and is 12-8 during the last two weeks.
Here’s three things we learned during week 3 of the college football season.
ACC stumbles on national stage
The ACC came in as the best conference against the spread during the first two weeks. This week, though, was when the conference branched out and squared off against power-five conference teams.
The teams that went outside the conference failed straight up and against the spread. The ACC had six games against power-five conference teams on Saturday. North Carolina, Virginia Tech and Miami registered wins, with Miami’s win as the biggest of the day for the ACC.
However, Nebraska scored a legendary backdoor cover against the Hurricanes, making the ACC just 3-3 against the spread in those six games.
It could have been worse, though, as Pittsburgh came back against Iowa, and ended up losing on a 57-yard field goal, thus covering the 6-point spread.
Alabama, Auburn need help
Alabama is closer to relevance than Auburn, but they both have plenty of work to do.
The final score in Alabama’s loss to Mississippi on Saturday was much closer than what the game actually indicated. The Rebels beat Alabama from the very beginning at the point of attack, and the Crimson Tide’s inability to muster any consistency from the quarterback position should be cause for concern.
The Rebels were the better team for the majority of the game, before a furious comeback attempt by Alabama that eventually fell short. This has been a consistent trend for the Crimson Tide. While Alabama has been good straight up at home, the Crimson Tide are only 13-16-1 at home against the spread since 2011.
But Alabama has more of a problem this season than one loss, based on being not as good on offense and having a schedule that might be one of the most difficult in the nation.
After this week’s game with Louisiana-Monroe, the Tide will face Georgia, Arkansas, Texas A&M, Tennessee and LSU. Two of those games – Georgia and Texas A&M – are on the road. That’s a difficult schedule even when Alabama is hitting on all cylinders.
Auburn, on the other hand, is having a tough time doing anything right. Auburn hasn’t been good on the field, and against the spread, it’s even worse. The Tigers are 0-3 against the spread this season, and that comes after being 4-9 against the spread last season.
The Tigers aren’t playing any defense and that offense just isn’t even close to what it was during the national runner-up finish only two years ago.
Some teams are being overvalued
Michigan State is really good. It might even be the best team in college football.
But oddsmakers are so far overvaluing the Spartans against the spread. Michigan State is 0-3 this year against the spread, and while it has an average margin of victory of 10 points, it is minus-5.3 against the spread.
Despite the 0-3 mark, teams like Missouri, Arizona State, Cincinnati and Auburn have been even worse against the spread. All four of those teams haven’t covered a spread yet this season, even with Missouri as 3-0 straight up. However, Missouri is averaging a minus-10.2 points per game against the spread.
Auburn is worse, at minus-19.3 points per game against the spread. Oddsmakers will likely adjust, especially to Auburn, but it should be worth keeping an eye on as the season progresses.
