It’s Sam Darnold’s Heisman to lose.
Oddsmakers are pinning high expectations on USC’s sophomore quarterback, putting him as the favorite to win the 2017 Heisman trophy. It’s hard to argue with the expectations based on his finish as a true freshman.
The Trojans were one of the best teams in the nation in the last months of the college football season. And Darnold’s placement at quarterback was a big reason.
He passed for more than 3,000 yards and threw 31 touchdowns, compared to only nine interceptions. While 2016 Heisman winner Lamar Jackson faded down the stretch, Darnold was on another planet, leaving the 2016 season with an exclamation point in the Rose Bowl.
Those are lofty expectations on a true sophomore, putting him at +400 to win the Heisman. Jackson’s repeat bid is actually better odds for gamblers at +650, while Baker Mayfield, a veteran quarterback from Oklahoma, also is going off with the second-highest odds at +650.
And it’s no surprise that other quarterbacks round out the favorites list. Alabama QB Jalen Hurts and Ohio State signal caller JT Barrett own the fourth and fifth-highest odds at +1,000 and +1,200, respectively. Only Bo Scarbrough, Alabama running back, has better odds at +900.
So who has the best value? It’s all about Mayfield. He’s a stats monster and Oklahoma should be good once again. There’s a monster game in the second week of 2017 against Ohio State. If the Sooners escape that with a victory and Mayfield is the reason for the victory, then expect Mayfield to be in the driver’s seat.
The Sooners regularly put up big points, so if Mayfield has that big national game in the early going, he should put up enough stats to keep the pressure on the rest of the field.
But if you’re looking for a dark horse, then look no further than UCLA quarterback Josh Rosen.
Rosen is probably the most talented quarterback in the nation, but had some struggles last season as the Bruins were a major disappointment.
Now that the expectations are tempered, I’m looking for Rosen to look more like his freshman self, than his sophomore slump. UCLA still has talent at the skill positions, too, meaning Rosen will have avenues to put up major yards.
He’s going off at +1,400, making him own the ninth-best odds. He has the ability to put up big numbers and at those odds, he offers solid value as a dark horse.
