Michigan State finally broke through last week as a favorite. The Spartans hadn’t covered a spread as a favorite yet this season, so we’ll keep an eye on if they can continue their run.
The Big 10 features some big spreads this week, with only one game with a spread featuring a touchdown or less. We’re anticipating games to be a little closer than expected.
Here are two games we’ll keep an eye on this weekend. Last week’s betting guide for each major conference went 5-5, with a 1-1 mark in the Big 10. Overall for the season, the betting guides have been 7-7 in the Big 10 and 40-38 overall in the power-five conferences.
Maryland (+18) at Iowa
Iowa has been one of the biggest surprises of the 2015 season. The Hawkeyes are still undefeated and the schedule sets up as nicely as any other team in the nation.
But we’re a bit concerned with Iowa’s injury issues. The Hawkeyes have battled injuries throughout this season and will now miss their starting running back this week.
And while the Hawkeyes have looked good recently, we’ve been impressed with Maryland during recent weeks. Since firing Randy Edsall, the Terrapins have competed well against decent competition. Maryland competed well at Ohio State and then lost by one point last week against Penn State.
The Terrapins dominated Iowa last season. We like the matchup and we anticipate this game will be within two touchdowns. — Go against the chalk with Maryland
Illinois at Penn State (-6)
We’re fading Illinois at this point.
We were confident in the Fighting Illini last week to cover against Wisconsin. But we’re disappointed with Illinois’ offense and its inability to move the ball consistently enough for us to trust them.
Penn State has the defense to thwart any attempt by Illinois to move the ball. Penn State also should move the ball against Illinois’ defense, so we’re OK with covering a touchdown. — Go chalk with Penn State
Other Big 10 games
Nebraska (-7.5) at Purdue
Rutgers at Wisconsin (-19)
Michigan (-13) at Minnesota
