FiveDimes recently released over/under regular season win totals for college football teams.
Here is an early-season look at the Arkansas Razorbacks in the SEC.
Over/Under
FiveDimes has Arkansas at 8.5 wins. Last year, Arkansas was 6-6 in the regular season. The line features a more favorable over to betters at +120, while the under is set at -160.
The upside
Wow, that’s a lot of wins for a team that has won four conference games in the last three seasons.
Oddsmakers are up to something with the Razorbacks and it starts with the home schedule. Arkansas has eight home games in the upcoming season, and four of those contests are against non-conference opponents that should be guaranteed victories.
The other home games are against Texas A&M, Auburn, Mississippi State and Missouri. There’s a chance that Arkansas could go unscathed in those four games. However, even if Arkansas went undefeated at home, it still wouldn’t give them the over.
The line isn’t only about the schedule. Prognosticators and oddsmakers are expecting the Razorbacks to be dramatically better in head coach Bret Bielema’s third year.
Bielema predicates his offense on the ability of the offensive line, and the Razorbacks are returning four starters from last year. The skill positions will likely work themselves out, so Arkansas should be able to move the football.
The downside
Even if the Razorbacks go undefeated at home, it still means they have to find a win on the road. All four of their road games happen to be against teams that may be ranked at some point in 2015.
Contests at Tennessee, Alabama, LSU and Mississippi aren’t going to be favored in the Razorbacks’ direction. And the defense still has holes to replace, meaning Arkansas will go on the road as an underdog with likely an undermanned defense.
That doesn’t sound like a good predicament.
The Verdict
This line doesn’t make sense. Oddsmakers could have set this line at 7.5, and likely gotten far more equal action on both sides, compared to 8.5 wins.
There’s not much reason to analyze this much further. The Razorbacks will be improved this season, but the over is way too risky to hope for a better return. This is one of the safest picks so far that has been written about on Against The Chalk.
Take the under and enjoy the extra money in your pocket at year’s end.
