FiveDimes recently released over/under regular season win totals for college football teams.
Here is an early-season look at the California Golden Bears in the Pac-12.
Over/Under
FiveDimes has California at five wins. Last year, California was 5-7 in the regular season. The line features a more favorable under to betters at -110, while the over is set at -130.
The upside
Oddsmakers are up in the air with California. There’s not much of a difference between betting the over or the under, making it appear that five wins is generally a consensus for what the Golden Bears will finish with in the wins column.
What many experts can agree on is that California should have better talent once again this season. The Golden Bears aren’t far removed from a 1-11 campaign in 2013. Last year, though, California was one of the most improved teams in the nation, going 5-7.
Now, in year three of Sonny Dykes as coach, the Golden Bears are expecting to be better on the field. Quarterback Jared Goff will return this season, along with skill position players Bryce Treggs, Kenny Lawler and Daniel Lasco.
There’s no doubt the offense will score. The Golden Bears scored 30 or more points in 10 games. The only problem was the defense allowed 30 or more points in 10 games.
The downside
The defense likely won’t be that much better, so the Golden Bears will have to score a bunch of points to compete. That doesn’t bode well against a schedule that’s loaded with top-25 teams.
California will travel to Texas, Washington, Utah, UCLA, Oregon and Stanford. Wow…that’s tough.
It doesn’t get a ton easier at home, with difficult games against USC, Oregon State and Arizona State. There are a few games where the Golden Bears should be favorites. Home games against Grambling State, San Diego State and Washington State should feature lines well in the direction of California.
The Verdict
On paper, California will likely be a better team than last year. Because of that, at first glance, it appears the Golden Bears should go well over five wins.
However, that schedule is brutal. The Golden Bears will be underdogs in all six road contests, meaning if they don’t win at least one of those games, bettors will have to depend on California sweeping its home schedule, which just happens to feature USC and Arizona State.
That’s a problem, and should lead plenty of bettors to flock to the under. Don’t always judge a team’s win/loss record on it being better than the previous year. California is a perfect example that schedule matters, and unfortunately for California fans, this year’s schedule doesn’t do them any favors. Take the under and have some remorse for California when you’re counting your winnings.
