FiveDimes recently released over/under regular season win totals for college football teams.
Here is an early-season look at the Duke Blue Devils in the ACC.
Over/Under
FiveDimes has Duke at 7 wins. Last year, Duke was 9-3 in the regular season. The line features a more favorable under to betters at +110, while the over is set at -150.
The upside
When did it become ho-hum to juice the over for Duke at seven wins?
In the past, seven wins would have been quite a mountain to climb for the Blue Devils. But not anymore.
Duke has won at least six games in the regular season during the past three seasons. Last year’s nine-win effort, was second-most in school history, behind the Blue Devils’ 10 wins two years ago.
Not to dwell on the seven wins part, but let’s look at this historically. Other than the last two seasons, Duke has won eight games four times, with two of them coming in 1960 and 1962.
Oddsmakers are putting out a number of seven wins, with a heavily juice over, for a team that has won eight or more games six times in school history dating back to 1960. That shows how different this program is compared to only a few years ago.
The line wasn’t set based on players coming back, because Duke will have to replace some key offensive weapons. However, the schedule-makers handed head coach David Cutcliffe a gift for attempting to reload, rather than rebuild.
There’s no Florida State. There’s no Clemson. And there’s no Louisville. That’s already a win for Duke.
The schedule also includes four home games in the team’s five five contests. Those include games against North Carolina Central, Northwestern, Georgia Tech and Boston College. The only road game is against Tulane.
Road games also won’t be over-bearing, with additional games against Army, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Virginia and Wake Forest. Three of those should be difficult, but Army and Wake Forest should be victories.
The downside
There are plenty of holes to replace. The Blue Devils will have to replace its starting quarterback, best wide receiver and key offensive linemen, including NFL draft pick Laken Tomlinson. The other positions may be replaceable because they weren’t high level, but the Blue Devils simply cannot replace Tomlinson.
He was a four-year starter and a first-round draft pick. The incoming offensive lineman will be a sharp downgrade, which should worry betters backing the Blue Devils.
Defensively, the Blue Devils will once again be undersized up front, which could prove problematic against Miami and Georgia Tech. However, Duke should be strong in its secondary. The Blue Devils will return all of their starters from a year ago, giving them the ability to load up in the front seven because of confidence in the backside.
The Verdict
This line is all about the schedule. Duke doesn’t have the weapons to compete in the ACC this year. However, the conference’s Coastal Division has been far below the Atlantic Division during the last few years, giving Duke some hope for another bowl bid.
There are five games that gamblers can count on as wins for Duke. That leaves three toss-ups for the Blue Devils to win, which isn’t a bad number, especially considering the Blue Devils will host four of those seven toss-up games.
However, with a team that just doesn’t have much returning, it doesn’t make sense to pass up the better deal and take the under. This team is not built to be an eight-win team. The schedule may say different and Cutcliffe has worked plenty of magic in the past, but don’t rush to the over, just because a few games should be wins on a schedule.
Take the under and be happy with a .500 season.
