FiveDimes recently released over/under regular season win totals for college football teams.
Here is an early-season look at the Indiana Hoosiers in the ACC.
Over/Under
FiveDimes has Indiana at six wins. Last year, Indiana was 4-8 in the regular season. The line features a more favorable over to betters at +140, while the under is set at -180.
The upside
The schedule isn’t daunting for Indiana. Chalk that up to a reason why the over/under is set so high.
Sure, there are games against Ohio State and Michigan State. From there, though, there are plenty of winnable games to be found.
The first four games are all contests that the Hoosiers could be actually favored in, with home games against Southern Illinois, Florida International and Western Kentucky, and a road game against Wake Forest.
The game against Wake Forest will likely be a fairly tight spread, but at least three of those should be games that betters can count on as victories for the upcoming season.
The schedule doesn’t get dramatically harder, either, with home games against Rutgers, Iowa and Michigan, and a winnable road game at Purdue. The Boilermakers were the only Big 10 team to lose to Indiana last year.
The downside
The biggest issue for gamblers looking at the Hoosiers to win seven games is when has that last happened?
It’s happened once in the last 20 years. The Hoosiers were 7-6 in 2007.
Gamblers will have to hope for the under-.500 trend to stop. It’s one thing to have a great schedule, with several winnable home games. It’s another thing to actually win those games.
Quarterback Nate Sudfeld is back from injury. The Hoosiers were 3-2 with him. Without him, they were 1-6. The Hoosiers also will return five other players on offense, but will miss NFL running back Tevin Coleman.
The defense will have to improve if all those winnable games turn into actual wins.
The Verdict
This schedule sets up nicely and is the main reason why the over/under is a number so high that Indiana has only achieved that over number once in the last 20 years.
Oddsmakers are expecting bettors to take the under, so the payback isn’t near as nice as that of the over.
The Hoosiers took a step forward just two years ago by going 5-7 before taking a step back last year and going 1-7 in the Big 10.
That record should be much better this year. Is there a strong likelihood that the Hoosiers will get seven wins? No. But the return is too good to turn down, especially if Indiana can take care of business at home.
Take the Hoosiers in the over and hope for a miracle.
