FiveDimes recently released over/under regular season win totals for college football teams.
Here is an early-season look at the Iowa State Cyclones in the Big 12.
Over/Under
FiveDimes has Iowa State at three wins. Last year, Iowa State was 2-10 in the regular season. The line features a more favorable under to betters at +100, while the over is set at -140.
The upside
It can’t get much worse than last year.
Iowa State went 0-9 in the Big 12, lost to FCS opponent North Dakota State (the Bison did win its fourth consecutive FCS championship, though) and finished 125th in total defense in FBS.
Iowa State did upset Iowa last season and plenty of young players got experience that should help the Cyclones turn some of those close losses into wins this year.
Last year, the Cyclones lost three games by four points or less. Those losses came with a decimated offensive line and wide receivers corps. Now, Quenton Bundrage returns for the Cyclones, and he will join D’Vario Montgomery and Allen Lazard to form one of the better wide receiving units in the Big 12.
If the offensive line improves, that should help the growth of returning starting quarterback Sam Richardson.
The downside
The Big 12 is tough. It’s even tougher with a defense that should be better than last year, but still won’t be good enough to compete with one of the nation’s top conferences.
If Iowa State is going over three wins, the first three games will provide the biggest clues. Iowa State hosts the University of Northern Iowa and Iowa, and then travels to Toledo before its first bye week on Sept. 26.
Win those games, and bettors are likely assured of an over. Lose one or more of those games, then it’s too close to call.
The Cyclones will have to navigate through nine teams again in the Big 12 (at some point Big 12 officials will realize the format of the current schedule cannibalizes on the lesser opponents).
Bettors can depend on losses against TCU, at Baylor, at Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and at Kansas State. Likely losses would be at home against Texas and at West Virginia.
Toss ups would be at home against Kansas and at Texas Tech.
That doesn’t bode well for Cyclone fans hoping for the over. That’s why it’s important for the defense to improve and for Iowa State to get off to a solid start.
The Verdict
Iowa State will likely be better on both sides of the ball this year. That’s not saying much after last year’s disaster on defense.
Offensively, this is the second year in Mark Mangino’s offense, so the Cyclones should improve, especially if the team stays healthy.
The schedule will be daunting again. But the first five games, featuring home games against UNI, Iowa and Kansas, and road games against Toledo and Texas Tech, should be navigable.
Look for the Cyclones to be better this year, and it will show in that first five games. If Iowa State doesn’t go over three wins in that time frame, it will be an uphill climb.
But bet on Iowa State to have at least four wins when it hosts TCU on Oct. 17.
