FiveDimes recently released over/under regular season win totals for college football teams.
Here is an early-season look at the Kansas Jayhawks in the Big 12.
Over/Under
FiveDimes has Kansas at 1.5 wins. Last year, Kansas was 3-9 in the regular season. The line features a more favorable under to betters at +180, while the over is set at -260.
The upside
What more upside do you need other than a 1.5 over/under total? That shows you how bad Kansas will be for the upcoming football season. And if 1.5 ever comes up in an over/under in football, it usually means to take the over.
And that’s what the sportsbook believes bettors will do. To win $100 while betting the over, gamblers would have to risk $260. That’s quite the bet to just win $100. Most will do that, though, not wanting to gamble.
But this is gambling, right? There’s not many bigger gambles than picking a team to win less than 1.5 games.
When looking at the roster, with only five starters returning on a team that won one game in the Big 12, there’s not many positive ways to spin an upside. The only good thing for Kansas is that it hosts the first two games of the season against South Dakota State and Memphis.
The downside
The Jayhawks better win those first two games, or the under will become reality.
And those two games won’t be easy. South Dakota State went 9-5 last year in FCS, while Memphis just happened to win 10 games and tied for the conference title for the first time since 1971. The Jayhawks will likely (I say that with little confidence) be favored against South Dakota State, but there’s not another game on their schedule that they will be a favorite (I say that with plenty of confidence).
The only games Kansas can win are against Rutgers, Iowa State and possibly Texas Tech. The bad news for the Jayhawks is that two of those games, Rutgers and Iowa State, are on the road.
So, with that being said, that under is looking a lot better…
The Verdict
If you’re in this to be smart with money, then taking the over is likely the safest pick. Any time a team has a 1.5 number for the over/under, the best bet is to take the over.
However, the argument can be made that Kansas will only be favored in one game all season. And the other betting lines likely won’t be close. If the Jayhawks lose both games to open the season, the under will happen.
If Kansas can steal one of those games, then the season will be interesting. With an under that features that much better of a return and the fact that the Jayhawks will enter 11 games as an underdog, the under is enticing. And since we’re all gamblers, go ahead and gamble a bit and take the under.
