FiveDimes recently released over/under regular season win totals for college football teams.
Here is an early-season look at the Kentucky Wildcats in the SEC.
Over/under
FiveDimes has Kentucky at six regular season wins. Last year, the Wildcats went 5-7 in the regular season. The line features an equal line at -120 for the over and under.
The upside
Kentucky made strides last year. The Wildcats still finished without a trip to a bowl game, but the season was a step forward in Mark Stoops’ second season.
This year, Kentucky is expecting much of the same for moving forward. Stoops has recruited a different level athlete that Wildcat fans have come to expect and it should be seen on the offensive end right away.
Patrick Towles will likely return as the starting quarterback despite a push from Drew Barker. Whoever the quarterback is, they will have four starting offensive lineman returning and a plethora of skill players around them.
The offense should be improved from last year’s five-win team, and it better be, considering the Wildcats will square off against SEC teams. However, part of the schedule should be manageable since there’s no LSU, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas or Texas A&M.
The schedule still won’t be easy, but the Wildcats just need to get to seven wins to over its total. Kentucky will rely on being favored in three of its four non-conference games featuring Louisiana, Eastern Kentucky and Charlotte. A final regular season game against Louisville may be a toss up by the end of the year.
In the conference, Kentucky should be favored against only Vanderbilt, but will play in likely toss-up games against Missouri, Florida and Tennessee.
The downside
Kentucky has made dramatic advances in its recruiting. However, it will be near impossible to replace the production on the defensive end made by Bud Dupree and Za’Darius Smith.
There also are other holes on the defensive end and the Wildcats will have to shake off its 0-6 finish from last season after starting the year at 5-1.
That may be difficult with a road game in the season’s second game against South Carolina. The Wildcats also have to travel to Georgia and Mississippi State. A home game against Auburn also is likely a contest where the Wildcats will be above-average underdogs.
The verdict
A strong home schedule and a team that is on the rise has this over bet reaching a high confidence level.
Kentucky must win seven games to achieve the over and has four likely wins against Charlotte, Vanderbilt, Louisiana and Eastern Kentucky. Sure, the Wildcats haven’t proven in the past to be trustworthy inside the SEC, but this is Stoops’ third year with highly touted recruits.
Something tells me that Kentucky will not only go over, but will be well over that six-win mark this season. If gamblers are looking for an early season edge, watch out for the Wildcats going on the road to South Carolina. Kentucky is squeezed in the middle of South Carolina’s games against North Carolina in week 1 and Georgia in week 3. That could spell trouble for the Gamecocks and gamlers should circle that game on the calendar for a possible upset by the Wildcats.
Betters also should take the over and watch Kentucky compete for a SEC East title.
