FiveDimes recently released over/under regular season win totals for college football teams.
Here is an early-season look at the Louisville Cardinals in the ACC.
Over/under
FiveDimes has Louisville at 7.5 regular season wins. Last year, the Cardinals went 9-3 in the regular season. The line features a more favorable over for bettors at +105, while the under is at -145.
The upside
It wasn’t always the prettiest last year, but head coach Bobby Petrino turned in a successful debut in his second stint as head coach at Louisville.
The offense and defense featured playmakers and the Cardinals did it without settling on a true No. 1 quarterback. If the Cardinals can settle on a quarterback, then life could be a little easier for Petrino and his offense.
Louisville also is coming off a year where its defense ranked in the top-10 nationally. Defense isn’t Petrino’s calling card, so if he can still find consistency this year on the defensive end, then Louisville may be able to remain in the discussion for double-digit wins. Despite losing several stars last year on defense, key transfers including Devonte Fields (former Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year at TCU), and former Georgia players Josh Harvey-Clemons and Shaq Wiggins, will help make up from last year’s losses.
If the Cardinals can get through the early part of their schedule, the over may look more enticing for bettors. The final part of the schedule features trips to Wake Forest, Pittsburgh and Kentucky, and home games against Syracuse and Virginia.
Other than possibly against Wake Forest, Louisville likely won’t be heavy favorites in any those match-ups. However, it should be favorites in most or all of those games, which would go a long way to achieving eight wins.
The downside
Petrino may be good, but the Cardinals schedule and returning players don’t mix well on paper for a stellar season.
The Cardinals won nine games last year on the backs of a top defense, which graduated seven starters. Louisville had 10 players drafted in the NFL draft, and now must replace the team’s top three receivers from a year ago. The offensive line also lost three starters, to go along with losses on the defensive side of the ball.
And there’s that quarterback problem. The Cardinals couldn’t find consistency at that position last year and this season appears to be just as concerning.
To go along with those issues, the Cardinals open the season in the Georgia Dome against Auburn. Two weeks later, the Cardinals host Clemson on a Thursday night.
To get to eight wins, Louisville backers will focus on the season’s first seven games, which feature one neutral field game against Auburn, two true road games against North Carolina State and Florida State, and home games against Houston, Clemson, Samford and Boston College.
The verdict
If anyone knows how to make a bad offense look at least decent, Petrino is the man. He will have to pull out all his magic tricks this year with the losses accumulated from last year’s offense.
The defense should rebound well, but without a solid No. 1 at quarterback, the Cardinals will be hard-pressed to have a winning record after three games.
To get to eight wins, Louisville will either have to record an upset against Clemson, Auburn or Florida State, or sweep its way through the games that will likely be competitive, like Houston, Boston College, Pittsburgh, Kentucky, Virginia and Syracuse.
That’s asking a lot and the signs seem to be pointing to a step back this year for the Cardinals in their second year in the ACC. The Cardinals should win seven games, but don’t depend on them winning more. Take the under and see how well the offense adjusts throughout the season.
