FiveDimes recently released over/under regular season win totals for college football teams.
Here is an early-season look at the Minnesota Golden Gophers in the Big 10.
Over/under
FiveDimes has Minnesota at 5.5 regular season wins. Last year, the Golden Gophers went 8-4 in the regular season. The line features a more favorable under to bettors at +110, while the over is at -150.
The upside
It wasn’t as if Minnesota’s schedule last season was easy. The Golden Gophers played TCU, Ohio State, Nebraska and Wisconsin and still won eight games. Granted, Minnesota lost three of its four games to TCU, Ohio State and Wisconsin (with its other loss in a head-scratcher against Illinois), but it won the games that were toss-ups.
It’s rare to see a team do that well in toss-up games and it may be unwise for bettors to expect the same results this season.
Oddsmakers are predicting Minnesota to return back to reality against virtually the same schedule.
It’s hard to blame them. The Gophers return only four starters on offense and will look for junior quarterback Mitch Leidner to improve upon the team’s 119th ranking in the passing game last season.
However, defensively the Gophers will be strong, with seven starters returning, including four in the secondary.
The schedule won’t be easy, with home games against TCU, Nebraska, Michigan and Wisconsin. The road may be even tougher, with contests against Colorado State (the week after hosting TCU), Northwestern, Ohio State and Iowa.
The biggest bright spot for bettors looking to exploit the over is that Minnesota now has the taste of victory in their mouth. Head coach Jerry Kill has provided stability and the Golden Gophers now know how to win. That can go a long way in achieving six wins.
The downside
The offense just won’t be that good. It’s been tough to watch Minnesota’s offense many times during the Kill era, but this year may take the cake.
That will be a problem with so many toss-up games. Remember how last year it seemed Minnesota kept winning those close, toss-up games. Now the Golden Gophers will have to face those teams this year with the opposition focusing on revenge.
The Golden Gophers will likely be underdogs against TCU, Northwestern, Nebraska, Ohio State, Iowa and Wisconsin. It’s tough to put money down on a team for six wins when it will face six games as underdogs, and there’s no clear-cut favorite against Michigan.
The verdict
The Golden Gophers only have to get to bowl-eligible to satisfy the over. That’s the best news for Golden Gopher bettors this season.
Likely losses include games against TCU, Ohio State and Wisconsin. From there, the Golden Gophers will face uphill tasks at Iowa, at Northwestern and home against Nebraska. The key to Minnesota’s over/under is how it does against teams it likely should beat, like at home against Ohio, Kent State, Illinois, and on the road at Purdue and Colorado State. Then there’s that game against Michigan, which could be the deciding factor in Minnesota’s bid for six wins.
This is another case where the under is the far better return. If bettors can reasonably assume that Minnesota will lose six games with a toss-up against Michigan, it’s worth taking the under to reap the rewards. If you believe Minnesota can record an upset, then go with the over.
However, I’m not taking stock in upsets. Take the under and see how well Minnesota does against the Wolverines.
