FiveDimes recently released over/under regular season win totals for college football teams.
Here is an early season look at the Penn State Nittany Lions in the Big 10.
Over/under
FiveDimes has Penn State at 7.5 regular season wins. Last year, the Nittany Lions were 6-6 in the regular season. The line features a better return for the under at +105, while the over is at -135.
The upside
This year is all about Christian Hackenberg. The former top quarterback recruit is now in his third year starting for the Nittany Lions and this team will likely only go as far as he goes.
Last year, he endured through a sophomore slump, hurling more interceptions than touchdowns. Those down numbers can likely be attributed to being sacked the most of any quarterback in the Big 10.
To help eliminate some of those sacks, Penn State will rely on six offensive linemen returning with some starting experience. Hackenberg will not only return a bevy of returning offensive linemen, but last year’s leading rusher Akeel Lynch will return, along with three sophomore wide receivers who gained valuable experience last season.
Defensively, the Nittany Lions should be strongest in the secondary, where they return three starters. The defensive line also will feature capable tackles in Austin Johnson and Anthony Zettel. Zettel led the team in sacks last season. Penn State ranked second in FBS in total defense last year.
All those pieces are nice. But it might not be as important as the schedule. Go ahead and look at the schedule from Sept. 12 to Oct. 10. The Nittany Lions will play five games, all at home, against Buffalo, Rutgers, San Diego State, Army and Indiana.
Go ahead and pencil in a season-opening win against Temple, and Penn State should be undefeated on Oct. 17.
The downside
Then life gets tougher for the Nittany Lions.
The real road schedule starts on Oct. 17 and it happens to be at Ohio State. From Oct. 17 to Nov. 28, the Nittany Lions will play six games, with four on the road. On top of the Ohio State trip, is at Maryland, at Northwestern and at Michigan State.
The best Penn State could do in those four games is be toss-ups against Maryland and Northwestern.
And while the offense should be much improved, it likely has nowhere to go but up from last season. The Nittany Lions were ranked 111th in total offense out of 125 teams in FBS. Shockingly that didn’t rank as the worst in the Big 10, as Michigan actually was worse, albeit slightly at 112.
While the defense should be solid as usual, it must replace last year’s Big 10 leading tackler Mike Hull.
The verdict
James Franklin’s second year as head coach should go better than his first. His offense should be much improved and the defense at Penn State is always good.
And the schedule sets up so nice that Penn State should have no problem going 6-0. From there, the Nittany Lions should still be favored in their two home games against Illinois and Michigan and could have an opportunity to split on the road.
This is a no-brainer, especially with the gift of the schedule in the early going. The over doesn’t grant the better return, but it’s the only pick in this instance.
