FiveDimes recently released over/under regular season win totals for college football teams.
Here is an early season look at the Texas Tech Red Raiders in the Big 12.
Over/under
FiveDimes has Texas Tech at six regular season wins. Last year, the Red Raiders went 5-7 in the regular season. The line features a better return on the over at -105, while the under is at -135.
The upside
Texas Tech returns four offensive linemen from last year’s unit and eight starters overall on the offensive side of the ball. That’s the good news.
However, in the Big 12, life usually revolves around a steady passing game, and the Red Raiders lacked that in 2014. A quarterback competition is set for the fall with the battle being between Davis Webb and Patrick Mahomes. Whoever wins that battle should have an offense that can produce plenty of points.
Last year’s team was set up to produce a plethora of points, too, but the offense was far too undisciplined and turned over the ball too much to be competitive in a rugged Big 12.
Those turnovers will have to go away in a hurry, as the Red Raiders square off against Big 12 foes on a weekly basis. The upside of Texas Tech’s schedule is that it hosts TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma State and Kansas State, four of the top teams in the Big 12.
The downside
The downside is that Texas Tech has to face those teams, in addition to a road schedule that features Arkansas, Oklahoma, West Virignia and Texas. At one point in the season, the Red Raiders will play the Razorbacks, Horned Frogs and Bears in successive weeks. Then, it will host an Iowa State team that could be 4-0 at that point.
If Texas Tech is going to rebound this year, it must improve its defense. New defensive coordinator David Gibbs will look for the Red Raiders to create turnovers en route to achieving at least seven wins this season.
Big 12 sack leader Pete Robertsen returns this year and should disrupt Big 12 quarterbacks. He will have to lead a resurgence in the defense, as last year’s unit surrendered 30 or more points in 10 of 12 games.
The verdict
Texas Tech needs a defense that can at least slow down opponents. It didn’t do that last year and we’re not sold it can do that this year.
The Red Raiders should have talent, but the Big 12 is just too difficult week in and week out. Texas Tech will be underdogs against Arkansas, Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State (likely), West Virginia and Kansas State (likely). The jury is still out on the season finale at Texas, too.
That only leaves four games where the Red Raiders will definitely be favorites. That isn’t good enough for bettors to take the over at seven wins. Go with the worse return and take the under.
