FiveDimes recently released over/under regular season win totals for college football teams.
Here is an early season look at the Washington Huskies in the Pac 12.
Over/under
FiveDimes has Washington at four regular season wins. Last year, the Huskies were 8-5 in the regular season. The line features a better return on the under at +145, while the over is set at -185.
The upside
Oddsmakers are daring you to take the under. Bettors would have to risk $185 for the over, just to win $100, which for win total predictions, is quite the ask. There’s no reason to blame oddsmakers for the limited return on the over, since the number was set at four, which for many in the betting public would seem low for a team coming off an eight-win campaign.
Three of the first four games are at home, against Sacramento State, Utah State and California. The Huskies should be favored in all three of those. Win those three, and the Huskies are more than halfway to the over and October hasn’t even hit.
With head coach Chris Petersen, he’s shown little in his career for people to doubt him, too. Offensively, the Huskies return running back Dwayne Washington, who led Washington in rushing last season. Top wide receiver Jaydon Mickens also returns for the Huskies.
The downside
There’s a reason why the number is four.
Washington returns only nine starters, and the quarterback position is now in a battle featuring two freshmen. Only one starter returns on the offensive line, and defensively, the Huskies return one starter from their front seven.
All four defensive linemen, and linebackers All-American Shaq Thompson and four-year starter John Timu are gone. That leaves the secondary as the most experienced unit, which at one time last season featured three freshmen as starters.
There will be plenty of inexperience on both sides of the ball, and once October hits, the Huskies will experience a rude awakening.
In October, Washington’s schedule is at USC, home against Oregon, at Stanford, and home against Arizona. The Huskies will be heavy underdogs in at least three of those games.
November’s schedule is easier, but still features games at Arizona State and Oregon State, and home games against Utah and Washington State.
And Petersen must travel to Boise State to begin the season, the place where he left two years ago to take over Washington.
The verdict
Four seems low for Washington, but when looking at the team and schedule, it’s about where it should be. The Huskies won’t win a game in October, and November starts with Utah and Arizona State.
Bettors can likely depend on the Huskies losing all six of those games, meaning this over/under could come down to the season’s final two games against Oregon State and Washington State.
The biggest question to answer is if Washington can endure a six-game losing streak, and rebound to play well in its final two games, where it would likely have legitimate shots at winning.
The under is a far better return, so every once in awhile, gamblers have to gamble. Taking the under at three wins, in which Washington could have by October, is a pretty big gamble. But, there’s a good chance the Huskies may go 0-for-October and November.
Go with the under and don’t panic too much when Washington is 3-1 entering the Pac-12 schedule.
