The first four weeks of the college football season have been difficult for Auburn, Arizona State and Missouri. But why is Michigan State among those three teams that have so far failed to create much optimism for this season?
The Spartans are underperforming in relation to the spread, much like Auburn, Arizona State and Missouri. These four teams are the lone power-five conference teams without a win against the spread in the first four weeks of the season. Auburn has become a dumpster fire against the spread since last season, going 4-13 dating back to last season.
That’s the worst mark in college football during that time. This is in stark contrast from what Michigan State and Missouri did last season, as they went 9-4 and 9-5 respectively.
Here’s three other items we learned from week 4 of the college football season.
Stay on the road with the Pac-12
Being on the road didn’t matter to Pac-12 teams this weekend.
Four of the five Pac-12 teams entered the weekend as road favorites. All four not only won, but covered. The other road team, Utah, entered Saturday’s game against Oregon as a double-digit underdog, and left as a 42-point winner, giving the Pac-12 five road wins and covers on Saturday.
It wasn’t just Saturday as a big road day for the Pac-12. The conference, other than Oregon State and Colorado, haven’t been afraid to go on the road all year.
Seven of the 11 conference teams that have played a true road game (Arizona State hasn’t played a true road game yet), are undefeated. The overall record on the road for Pac-12 teams is 12-4 against the spread.
In four matchups upcoming this week in the Pac-12, three of the four games will likely feature road underdogs, with only Oregon likely as a favorite at Colorado.
Defense optional in the Big 12…again
Oddsmakers have adjusted pretty well to Big 12 teams’ inability to play defense.
And it appears the over/unders will have to be set high again this season. In the marquee matchup of week 4 for the Big 12, TCU and Texas Tech combined for 107 points, easily going over the projected total.
The Red Raiders, Horned Frogs and Baylor have been stalwarts once again going over the total. The three teams are a combined 8-2 in the over this season, sticking with a familiar trend.
Since 2013, Baylor is 20-9 in the over, while Texas Tech is 17-11 and TCU is 17-12.
But with the adjusted take on the totals, bettors will have to likely hope for big points, like Baylor did this week scoring 70, or both teams going crazy, like Texas Tech and TCU. Oklahoma State and Texas went for 57 and missed the over by five points.
Several teams finding trouble
It’s almost surprising Randy Edsall hasn’t been fired yet, after another embarrassing loss, this time 45-6 to West Virginia. That same hot seat is in Arkansas right now, where Bret Bielema is now 1-3 with a team that was supposed to be a dark horse contender for a SEC title.
The seat isn’t hot yet in Arizona State or Auburn, but both of those teams haven’t looked good in any games this season. The offenses aren’t good and the defenses could use some work. Unfortunately for those teams, the conferences they are in are as unforgiving as any conference division in the country.
The team with the biggest problem, though, is Oregon. Announcers were already prepared to blame Oregon’s destruction on the loss of Marcus Mariota. Sure, that matters, but Oregon’s never had a problem before with replacing any player, even one with the capability of Mariota.
We mentioned this earlier this year, but it bears repeating. Former head coach Chip Kelly is a special coach. Almost all universities can’t handle losing a coach of that caliber, and eventually, after many of the recruits go away, the school returns back to earth.
The same is happening with the Ducks. This isn’t your typical Oregon team. It doesn’t play any defense and that offense doesn’t strike near as much fear in opponents’ defenses as it once did.
We expect these issues to persist for the Ducks.
