You know it’s been a tough season when you have an undefeated week against the spread and you’re still under .500 overall.
It was by far the best week of the season for the college football best bets. Now the only issue is putting two competent weeks together, something that has eluded me thus far this season.
With conference season in full swing and many teams showing their true colors, it’s becoming apparent which teams are better or worse than their perception.
Here’s the week 10 college football best bets.
Last Week: 6-0 ATS
Overall: 24-29-1 ATS
Oregon State at Stanford (-14.5)
I’ve been all over the Beavers this season covering the spread. Oregon State is 6-2 against the spread, despite having a margin of victory of minus-7.6 points per game.
That basically says oddsmakers and the betting public haven’t been on the same page with the Beavers. Finally, though, people are starting to realize that Oregon State isn’t as bad as what those high spreads indicate. This line opened at 16.5 to start the week and has since moved down two points.
Naturally, though, while everyone else is finally seeing Oregon State as a decent team, I’m jumping off the cover bandwagon.
The Beavers still have some serious problems. They can’t move the ball very well despite what they did in the first half last week against Washington State. The Cougars stymied the Beavers in the second half, and that’s been pretty regular in recent weeks.
And despite being that good against the spread, the Beavers still have only won two games this season. Eventually the spread works out to resemble more of what the win/loss record is for teams. That will begin this week against a decent Stanford team.
The Cardinal are starting to look more like the Stanford of old and this one could get ugly quick. Stanford only giving up two touchdowns at home to Oregon State? Yes, please. — Go Chalk with Stanford
Oregon (+17) at USC
This is a big spread.
Who would have dreamed a few years ago that Oregon would be more than a two-touchdown underdog?
The reason why this spread is so big is that the Trojans are finding their groove and Oregon has been bad for a long stretch of the season. The Ducks’ victory last week against Arizona State was its first since week 2.
But let’s not write off the Ducks just yet. That five-game losing streak featured losses to teams with a combined record of 31-9. And three of those five were by a field goal.
And why are we all of sudden talking about the Trojans as being back? This four-game winning streak is against teams with a combined record of 17-16. USC is playing better, but it’s against sub-par competition.
The Ducks still have plenty of talent that they can match up well with the Trojans. I can’t believe I’m getting more than two touchdowns. — Go Against the Chalk with Oregon
Iowa (+7.5) at Penn State
Two weeks ago, you would have never imagined Iowa would be more than a touchdown underdog. But after a major upset victory two weeks ago against Ohio State and then a dominating performance last week, oddsmakers have put Penn State in a position to cover more than a touchdown.
This is right in Iowa’s wheelhouse.
The Hawkeyes aren’t very good this season, but they do just enough on a regular basis to keep games close. The defense is far better than Purdue, which just gave up 62 points to the Nittany Lions. And don’t be fooled by Penn State’s performance against Ohio State. That had more to do with the Buckeyes’ epic collapse in the fourth quarter than Penn State’s offense coming alive.
This should be low scoring and will stay close throughout. Both teams have similar talent levels, so I’ll take the points in this Big 10 night game. — Go Against the Chalk with Iowa
Bonus Bets
Texas A&M at Mississippi State (+14) — This line seems off to me. You’d think the Aggies would be bigger favorites than just two touchdowns against the Bulldogs. But it appears someone knows something. It’s an early kick time and these are just the kinds of games that Texas A&M has struggled in the past. — Go Against the Chalk with Mississippi State
Purdue at Minnesota (-17) — Purdue is absolutely horrible. Minnesota is starting to look more like the team I expected in the offseason. The Gophers have shown the ability to blow out lesser opponents, so I’ll back Minnesota big for its seventh win. — Go Chalk with Minnesota
Florida (-5) at Arkansas — The SEC is tough. And Arkansas is finding that out first-hand. The Razorbacks have been through a brutal schedule and it won’t get any easier. The Gators play elite defense and I only have to give up five points in a game featuring an Arkansas team that gave up more than 50 last week. — Go Chalk with Florida
