Did anyone else believe Wake Forest would go from a guaranteed cover to a bad beat in week 11?
The Demon Deacons entered the fourth quarter with a two-point lead against Louisville last week, only to allow 34 unanswered points in the fourth quarter. Thankfully for those who took Wake Forest, the spread was 34.5 points, meaning the final margin of victory of 32 points didn’t result in a colossal bad beat.
That was one of my two wins last week, with the surging Stanford Cardinal being the other.
I’m running out of time to run my record back to even, so here’s my week 12 college football best bets.
Last Week: 2-3-1 ATS
Overall: 27-37-2 ATS
Stanford (-11) at California
I know this is a rivalry game, but this game is all about which team is trending in the right direction.
The Cardinal have won four of their last five games. The Golden Bears have dropped three straight contests.
Stanford has finally found its running game and has put up more than 30 points in two of the last three weeks. California, meanwhile, has only stopped teams from achieving 30 points once this season. And in the last three weeks that unstoppable offense has disappeared.
The Golden Bears have yet to top 30 points in the last three weeks. That’s a bad sign for anyone backing California this week.
Stanford is still very talented. It just took longer this year for everything to gel together. Stanford is rolling and shouldn’t have a problem with covering 11 points against rival California. — Go Chalk with Stanford
Mississippi (-10) at Vanderbilt
Maybe I’m starting to turn the corner. Or maybe I just really like favorites this week.
Usually I’m an underdog machine. That’s probably why my college football record is below .500 and my NFL record is the opposite. This week, though, the favorites jump out at me because of the vast talent disparity.
In this game, there’s no denying the Rebels as being the far more talented team. And it’s not like Mississippi doesn’t have anything to play for.
The Rebels have rattled off two consecutive victories, including a come-from-behind win last week against Texas A&M. The winning streak has put them at 5-5, leaving them one win away from being bowl eligible.
That’s a problem for Vanderbilt, which doesn’t have much to stay for itself on the offensive side of the ball. The Commodores do have a decent defense, but they’ll have to put up some points to keep up with Ole Miss.
This spread should be closer to the two-touchdown or more range. Instead, we’re getting good value with Mississippi, which appears like it’s starting to hit a late-season groove. — Go Chalk with Mississippi
Arizona at Oregon State (-6.5)
It’s amazing to me that Oregon State is almost a touchdown favorite over anybody, but that shows just how far off Arizona has fallen.
The Beavers haven’t actually been that bad this season. They’ve been money against the spread (other than last week) and they’re playing far more talented teams all the way to the wire.
Arizona, on the other hand, is not. The Wildcats have basically given up for the season, which happens from time to time with teams that expect a lot out of the season, only to falter early and often.
The Beavers are attempting to build a program and this is a game that means far more to them. Arizona is just trying to finish the season. The reason why Oregon State is almost a touchdown favorite?
This game means more. — Go Chalk with Oregon State
Bonus Bets
Washington State (+4.5) at Colorado — Both teams are fighting for a Pac-12 title and they’re very similar in terms of talent. I like Washington State’s offense better and therefore should be able to keep this game close. — Go Against The Chalk with Washington State
Texas Tech at Iowa State (+3.5) — At this point in the season, sometimes it’s what games mean more to teams. Iowa State is building a program, while Texas Tech is having difficulties finding its program. The Cyclones ride a bit of momentum from last week and stun the Red Raiders. — Go Against The Chalk with Iowa State
Oregon at Utah (-15) — There’s not a number too high that I wouldn’t consider taking against Oregon. The Ducks are fried. — Go Chalk with Utah
