It’s been a topsy-turvy trip for my college football picks for the last two weeks. Week 10 saw a 5-1 mark ATS, while week 11 witnessed a 1-5 ATS mark.
So, I’m due for another 5-1 ATS week. Teams at this juncture of the season get tight at times, so don’t forget that when you see lopsided spreads. Here’s the week 12 college football picks featuring the three best underdogs that will cover the spread.
Overall: 40-26 ATS
Underdogs: 21-12 ATS
Michigan (+7.5) at Wisconsin
Remember Michigan? It seems we’ve forgotten about the Wolverines after two midseason losses to Michigan State and Penn State.
Riding a modest three-game winning streak, where they’ve dominated the opposition, the Wolverines have an opportunity to play the underdog role and spoiler against the Badgers.
Michigan still has talent, especially on the defensive side of the ball, and Wisconsin hasn’t played a team like this yet this season. The Badgers are tough on the defensive side of the ball, too, but the Wolverines are showing growth on offense, averaging 6.7 yards per play in the last three games, far better than their season average of 5.4 yards per play.
Defensively, the teams are very comparable, and with an emerging Michigan offense, this game has the potential of being an upset special for the Wolverines. — Go Against the Chalk with Michigan
Fresno State at Wyoming (+1.5)
Quietly, Wyoming has come back from the doldrums of being blown out by Oregon and Iowa earlier this season.
The Cowboys have won six of seven games since that week 3 blowout to the Ducks, and in the lone loss, they played Boise State, a nationally ranked team, tough. Included in those wins was a nice home win against Colorado State.
What’s propelling the Cowboys to the recent success is a renewed defense, which is allowing just 4.1 yards per play in the last three games, something necessary to defeat the Bulldogs. Head coach Jeff Tedford has the Bulldogs humming on offense, but back-to-back road games at Hawaii and Wyoming may be too tough for Fresno.
Quarterback Josh Allen injured his shoulder in week 11, but it sounds like he may be available in week 12. I like the Cowboys to win this one outright. — Go Against the Chalk with Wyoming
Rutgers (+11) at Indiana
The Scarlet Knights aren’t great, but they can keep games close against mediocre competition.
This is a classic battle of offense versus defense, with Rutgers packing a decent enough scoring defense in the Big 10 against a Hoosiers offense that can light up the scoreboard.
Rutgers does a better job competing when the offense can move the chains. That doesn’t happen against Michigan or Penn State, when the defense was eventually dominated. They need to at least be able to move the ball to keep that defensive unit off the field.
When that happens, the Scarlet Knights have far more success. And that should happen in this contest. Getting double-digits in this game is good value. — Go Against the Chalk with Rutgers
