Thankfully the regular season of college football is ending this week. I’m limping to the finish line, going 1-11 ATS in the last two weeks.
So, I have to hustle to keep my record looking good for the 2017 season. Here’s the six best week 13 college football picks that will cover the spread.
Favorites: 19-17 ATS
Underdogs: 21-15 ATS
Overall: 40-32 ATS
New Mexico at San Diego State (-20)
This is a major mismatch and I only have to give up three touchdowns. That creates big-time value.
The Aztecs have been disappointing in relation to their expectations. But this game still represents an opportunity to win 10 games, and it features a team that has lost six straight games. What also doesn’t help is that San Diego State has been hot on offense in the last three games, going for 7.3 yards per play in the last three games, a far better average than the season number at 5.8.
New Mexico, meanwhile, is going the wrong way, averaging just 4.8 yards per play in the last three games, down from its season average of 5.3 yards.
The Aztecs are the better team and this shouldn’t be close. Look for this number to be covered in the first half. — Go Chalk with San Diego State
Western Kentucky (-2.5) at Florida International
Injuries and recent losses have me siding with the Hilltoppers this week.
Florida International was a surprising team earlier this season, but two straight losses has the Panthers looking less than average. And now, Florida International has to deal with losing its top two wide receivers.
The game doesn’t match up well for Florida International, with Western Kentucky being a strong passing team, while Florida International is fading with its pass defense.
Florida International won’t be able to get off the field on the defensive side of the ball, so go with Western Kentucky. — Go Chalk with Western Kentucky
Indiana at Purdue (-3)
This should be a good game, but I’m favoring Purdue’s ability to make more stops on the defensive side of the ball to win this game by more than three points.
The Boilermakers have been riding a better-than-advertised defense to getting near bowl eligibility. Both teams enter this game with five wins, but I trust Purdue’s toughness to come through in a major way. Purdue’s quarterback situation is finally stabilized and it showed through in last week’s road win at Iowa.
Go with the Boilermakers defense and pick Purdue. — Go Chalk with Purdue
Virginia Tech at Virginia (+7)
Virginia Tech is fading and I don’t want to go down with that ship.
The Hokies are too inconsistent on offense, reducing its yards per play by a full yard in the last three games, while the defense isn’t doing enough to make up for that lack of production. Virginia, meanwhile, has shown at times this season to be more competitive than previously believed.
The Cavaliers are averaging a yard more per play in the last three games than the Hokies, and the defense has actually been better during that time period, too.
I’m not only banking on the rivalry factor as a reason why I like Virginia. The Cavs match up well and the Hokies are disappearing. — Go Against The Chalk with Virginia
Washington State (+10) at Washington
The Cougars are being way undervalued in this game.
Washington’s offense hasn’t been consistent enough this season to believe it should be a double-digit favorite in this rivalry game. Washington State actually isn’t that far off on the defensive side of the ball, and I trust the Cougars just as much as the Huskies on the offensive side of the ball.
This game shouldn’t be more than a touchdown spread. Oddsmakers are giving Washington way too much credit, so I’m looking for an upset opportunity for Washington State. — Go Against The Chalk with Washington State
Northern Illinois at Central Michigan (+3)
The offense is showing signs of improvement for Central Michigan, while Northern Illinois is looking more stagnant.
Central Michigan quarterback Shane Morris is making better decisions and I trust him more than anyone on Northern Illinois’ offense. He’s been stellar in the Chippewas recent four-game winning streak and that should continue even against a good Northern Illinois defense.
I like Central Michigan’s balance, which should keep the Huskies’ defense off-balance. — Go Against The Chalk with Central Michigan
