Not only did my college football underdogs cover in week 3, but all three of them won straight up. That’s been the norm this year as I haven’t missed an underdog yet in college football prognosticating.
Can I stay this hot all year? My bank account would love that, but the law of averages says I may come down a bit from my early winning streak. Let’s hope that doesn’t happen until far down the road, since these are my three best week 4 college football underdogs that will cover the spread.
Underdogs: 9-0 ATS
Overall: 15-3 ATS
Central Florida (+4) at Maryland
It’s been awhile since we last saw Central Florida. Cancellations to the previous two games has provided some rest for the Knights in the early season.
That could create some rust against a Maryland team that dismantled a Texas team. It also could provide a gameplan completely focused for weeks on the Terrapins.
Maryland has looked good offensively this year, but I worry about the motivation level and focus. The Terrapins jumped into the national spotlight with a week 1 win at Texas, scoring 51 points (and allowing 41), before routing Towson. An early season bye has led to this game just before the Big 10 slate begins.
It’s natural to believe the Terrapins will overlook the Knights in preparation for the Big 10. And that would be devastating. The Knights have solid skill position players all over the board and can move the ball at will. Defensively, it may be a bit more of a chore, but I expect this game to be high-scoring and within one possession. — Go Against The Chalk with Central Florida
Pittsburgh (+9.5) at Georgia Tech
It’s been a rough start for the Panthers on both ends of the football. They’ve lost by a combined 92-35 in the previous two games, showing the nation that it can’t move the football and can’t stop top-tier offenses.
So naturally, I believe they will compete in week 4.
The Yellow Jackets don’t scare me. Georgia Tech played well in week 1, but the Panthers know what they’re going to see from Georgia Tech. This isn’t the pass-happy, spread offense from Oklahoma State, or the athletic, mutli-tiered offensive approach of Penn State.
This is a triple option attack from a team that is far less skilled than Pittsburgh’s previous two opponents. This defense isn’t as bad as it showed in the last two weeks and that will surface this week.
Georgia Tech is being way overvalued in this spot. — Go Against The Chalk with Pittsburgh
Texas Tech (+6) at Houston
Did I miss something? Why are the Red Raiders almost a touchdown underdog in this game?
I could see where the Cougars could get some love as a small favorite, but to believe Texas Tech, which can score on anybody, should be that much of an underdog to a non-power five team is a slap in the face.
That will motivate the Red Raiders, which also is in desperation mode based on results from previous years. Don’t be fooled by early results from the Cougars defense. They haven’t faced anyone like Texas Tech yet.
And don’t be fooled by last week’s result against Arizona State for the Red Raiders. That game was 35-17 at halftime and Texas Tech wasn’t going to stop scoring.
This is once again great value, stemming from the belief that Houston deserves to be in that power-five conversation. They can compete with the big dogs, but shouldn’t be this much of a favorite. — Go Against The Chalk with Texas Tech
