I picked against my favorite ATS college football team in week 8 and it backfired.
Auburn has been hot and absolutely dismantled Arkansas last week, putting the nation on notice for what is possible with the Tigers. When that offense is clicking like it is now, it’s hard to find a number too high not to take Auburn.
Last week didn’t continue my trend of being semi-decent recently in college football handicapping. We’re heading into Halloween weekend, so you know there will be a few upsets brewing.
Here’s the week 9 college football best bets.
Last Week: 2-4 ATS
Overall: 18-29-1 ATS
Duke (+6.5) at Georgia Tech
Who has Georgia Tech beaten? The Yellow Jackets come in with the better record and as the favorite, but I’m trying to understand why the spread is more than a field goal.
The Yellow Jackets have beaten Boston College, Mercer, Vanderbilt and Georgia Southern. Before beating Georgia Southern two weeks ago, Georgia Tech was on a three-game losing streak.
This team just isn’t as talented as I perceived entering the season. They don’t do a ton on defense and the offense isn’t good enough to score in the 40s and 50s.
The Blue Devils aren’t great, either, but they’ve held their own in many games this season. The losses to Northwestern and Wake Forest are looking better each week, and the Blue Devils are just two weeks removed from losing by 10 points at Louisville.
Both of these teams are similar, but I’ll give Duke the edge in playing better competition to get it ready for this game. Duke is a sneaky moneyline pick that could yield decent returns. — Go Against the Chalk with Duke
Kansas State at Iowa State (+6.5)
I’m getting Iowa State giving up almost a touchdown at home to Kansas State? Sign me up.
The Cylcones aren’t very good, but they’ve actually competed pretty well in 10 of the last 12 quarters. If we can get past that awful effort in the second half to Texas, Iowa State has shown some promise of late against some of the Big 12’s best competition.
What also helps in this pick is that Iowa State always…even when it’s terrible…plays well against the Wildcats. And it’s not like Kansas State is any world beater in its own right.
The Wildcats have pretty much beaten the teams we anticipated and lost to the teams we assumed it would. They had a nice win at home last week against Texas, but Iowa State was leading at half against the Longhorns.
Iowa State is sandwiched in-between games against Oklahoma, Texas, Oklahoma State and Baylor for the Wildcats. They have more important games to worry about, meaning the Cyclones can sneak up on Kansas State. — Go Against the Chalk with Iowa State
Arizona State at Oregon (-7.5)
Oregon isn’t very good. But there’s something about this matchup that has me leaning toward the Ducks.
Arizona State has been atrocious on the road this season. The Sun Devils have lost their only two Pac-12 road games by a combined score of 45 points to USC and Colorado.
And while Oregon hasn’t looked like it used to when Chip Kelly was there, it still has some talent. Oregon doesn’t have the talent level of a 2-5 team. They shouldn’t be undefeated, but they’re good enough to be over .500.
This game smells of a big day for the Ducks. I’m siding with my hunch and giving up more than a touchdown. — Go Chalk with Oregon
Bonus Bets
Nebraska (+9) at Wisconsin — Nebraska is getting zero respect and it’s hard to blame oddsmakers and the betting public. But the Cornhuskers have shown enough on offense and defense this year that it can at least hang with the Badgers. Wisconsin has had a brutal schedule, so I’m expecting them to be a little down in this one. — Go Against the Chalk with Nebraska
Auburn (-5) at Mississippi — Like I mentioned earlier, Auburn is starting to find its groove. The Rebels are missing something this year. They don’t have enough to keep up with the Tigers. — Go Chalk with Auburn
Washington State at Oregon State (+13.5) — I talked about Oregon State’s ability to cover games earlier this season. The Beavers have been one of the better Pac-12 teams in doing that this season. I’m expecting that to happen again after the Cougars are on the road for a second straight week. — Go Against the Chalk with Oregon State
