I won’t risk a top-tier fantasy draft pick on a quarterback. I value running backs and wide receivers far too much than to waste a pick on a position that doesn’t separate itself enough from one level to the next.
This year, especially, opens up the possibility of finding hidden quarterback gems in the later rounds of upcoming drafts.
Here’s three quarterbacks who by season’s end will outperform their ADP. Since drafts haven’t happened yet, these ADPs are anticipated based on several experts on FantasyPros.
Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers, ADP: 58
Newton is going to be much better this year. That’s been his career arc thus far, and I don’t see that changing this season.
In odd years, Newton’s completion percentage has been 59 percent or higher. In even years, his completion percentage has been 57 percent or lower two out of three times, including last year’s dismal 52 percent.
His touchdowns have been higher in odd years and his team has been better. The Panthers couldn’t escape the Super Bowl loser hangover last year, despite having similar players. That shouldn’t be the problem this year.
The offensive line is better and the Panthers added versatile running back Christian McCaffrey in the draft. Kelvin Benjamin is still a good enough receiver that he gives Newton a No. 1 guy, and we can’t discount what Newton can do on the ground.
When Newton is really good, he’s a top-three fantasy quarterback. He owns the seventh-highest average draft position among quarterbacks and will likely be available in the fifth round. That’s still a little too high for my blood, but his worth is better than a fifth-round grade.
Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans, ADP: 84
Mariota is really good. The only issue is if he can stay healthy.
The Titans gave him more weapons with Eric Decker and Corey Davis. He still has a solid offensive line and a running game that takes pressure off of him. And he can score in multiple ways, with his legs and his arm.
If it wasn’t for his injury history, the value on Mariota would be the best of any player in fantasy football. At an ADP of 84, he should still be on draft boards in the later parts of the seventh round. That means your team could have three top-tier running backs, two wide receivers and a solid tight end before even thinking about a quarterback with the possibility of being a top-five option every week.
However, you have to weigh that potential with his injury history. He’s been injured in the past and he finished last year on the injured reserve. Can we trust him to put in a full slate of games? I’m not sure. He’s a steal at this level based on his performance. If you do draft him, make sure you have a competent backup, who you can trust to fill in on a weekly basis if necessary.
Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, ADP: 88
I’m drafting Winston in the upcoming 2017 fantasy football draft. So if anyone in my league is reading this, you either have to draft Winston really high, or I’m nabbing him in the middle rounds.
The recipe for a breakout season is at a fever pitch for Winston. This is his third year, where many quarterbacks take that next step. Tampa Bay handed Winston more weapons in the offseason with the additions of DeSean Jackson and O.J. Howard. And head coach Dirk Koetter is an offensive guy in his second year at the helm, who happens to be a big proponent of Winston’s abilities.
Winston is going to have more leeway to run the offense this season with better weapons. His interceptions concern me a bit, but he’s grown in every other category during his first two years. There’s no reason to believe he won’t continue to grow. Winston has the ability to shoot up the fantasy standings this year and he’s durable. My fantasy football roster will include Winston.
