For the first time in recent memory, I can’t overwhelmingly say there’s much of a difference in my top-four running backs in fantasy football.
And beyond that, there’s still some value to be had.
The 2018 fantasy football draft doesn’t have near the land mines we experienced in the 2017 fantasy football draft in terms of running backs.
Remember Jay Ajayi and DeMarco Murray garnering late first/early second-round grades? You don’t have those easily seen busts this year.
Athlon has released its top 300 fantasy football rankings for the 2018 fantasy football drafts. I’ve already examined what I’d do with the quarterbacks, so now I’ll turn my focus on running backs.
Here’s my take on the running backs in the 2018 fantasy football draft.
Is there a difference?
Athlon has Le’Veon Bell ranked as the top overall player heading into the 2018 draft, with Todd Gurley as second, Ezekiel Elliott as fourth and David Johnson as sixth.
To me, that’s the top tier, with No. 8 overall Alvin Kamara, No. 11 Melvin Gordon, No. 12 Kareem Hunt and No. 13 Leonard Fournette just missing the cut.
What I like about those top-four running backs is that I don’t see much of a difference. In past years, there’s generally been a clear distinction between the top one or two running backs and everyone else.
I could easily make an argument for Johnson being the No. 1 overall player. The only reason he’s not at the top of the list in many experts’ opinions is because he was injured last year. When he was healthy, he was a three-down running back, with the ability to run and catch out of the backfield, and he has a nose for the endzone.
All four of those running backs are going to be dominant in workload and can be three-down running backs. My rankings would be different, though, and may continue to change if Bell holds out once again.
To me, the safest picks are Elliott and Johnson, with Bell and Gurley being third and fourth on the list.
If you’re not drafting a RB early, you’re in trouble
For about a two-year period, wide receivers became the darling of fantasy football. For the remaining years in fantasy football history, it’s been all about the running backs.
That’s why if you’re risking early picks on wide receivers and quarterbacks, you’re in major trouble.
Of the top 21 players, 12 are running backs, according to the Athlon rankings. My draft strategy will remain the same as it has been for years. Two running backs will be drafted in my first two rounds, no matter where I’m drafting.
If you’re waiting until the third round to pick up a running back, good luck, because the value just isn’t there.
Even in the second round, I see major value. Dalvin Cook was on his way to becoming a Rookie of the Year candidate last year before being injured, and he’s ranked 17th overall.
In a standard 12-team league, Fournette is the top pick in the second round, which would be a major boon for anyone drafting last in the first round and first in the second round. Picking up Fournette and either Hunt or Gordon would provide a formidable running back tandem for any fantasy football team.
Even Christian McCaffrey offers tremendous upside as the undisputed No. 1 option now in Carolina at the 27th overall spot.
How about some busts?
Busts happen. Sometimes it’s injuries. Sometimes it’s just being way overvalued.
Last year, it was easy to spot Murray as a bust. This year, it’s a bit more difficult to find that one player who will dot many lineups that finish close to the bottom in their fantasy football leagues.
If I was to stamp a possible bust tag on any of these running backs, I’d have to target Kamara.
Last year, Kamara was dynamic. He was a major piece to many fantasy football owners’ playoff run, and it’s anticipated he’ll see more work this year.
I wouldn’t be so sure, though. Sean Payton is no stranger to abandoning the run. That’s been his calling card for the majority of his career, so I’m not going to let one year cloud my judgment.
That backfield also is crowded, with Mark Ingram also warranting plenty of carries. I see Kamara drifting into more of a Darren Sproles/Reggie Bush mode, which can provide decent fantasy production, but not at the level of a mid-first round grade.
We have so much more evidence on these other running backs, and many of the running backs rated behind Kamara will have a much bigger workload.
