Average draft position is an important barometer when constructing your fantasy football draft strategy.
You may have a player ranked much higher than their ADP, but you don’t want to reach on him, in order to maximize your roster. It’s a delicate balancing act, because you also don’t want to miss out on that player either.
Here’s a breakdown of some quarterbacks and running backs with similar ADPs, but glaring differences in potential production for 2017.
Quarterback
Kirk Cousins (ADP: 82) vs. Jameis Winston (ADP: 86)
If fantasy football was all about past production, this wouldn’t be close. Cousins has been a solid fantasy quarterback the past two years. I may not understand it, with his dink and dunk style driving me crazy, but he still has put up some major fantasy points in the previous two years.
Winston, meanwhile, has improved, but he hasn’t done much in the fantasy world yet, never cracking that elusive top-12.
This year, though, is different. Winston has the weapons, with top-tier wide receiver Mike Evans to go along with deep threat DeSean Jackson. He has two tight ends capable of catching the ball and a running game that is being undervalued. And it’s Winston’s third year; a year typically where really good quarterbacks take that next step.
Winston has done nothing in the past two years to prove otherwise the hype that surrounded him as a No. 1 pick. He’s improved each year and I don’t see that changing this year.
Cousins, meanwhile, lost his deep threat Jackson, which could thwart his dink and dunk attack. He needs somebody to take the top off a defense. Jackson did that at a high level. Terrelle Pryor joined the wide receiving corps in the offseason, but I’m not sure he can do what Jackson did for this offense.
Cousins’s offensive coordinator is no longer there either. The missing pieces will add up and will make Cousins more of a weekly liability than a top-10 QB1. — Take Jameis
Running Backs
Todd Gurley (ADP: 19) vs. Leonard Fournette (ADP: 21)
Both players failed to live up to the hype last year. Gurley was a first round fantasy pick and didn’t contribute as an RB1, while Fournette was supposed to be a Heisman trophy candidate. However, he was too concerned about getting injured, and then got hurt, and wasn’t the running back we believed he could be.
This year, though, we have an opportunity to draft them in the middle to later portion of the second round. For my value, I’m taking Gurley. I’m not dismissing Fournette, but if I have the choice, Gurley is a proven commodity on an offense that needs him desperately. Gurley is a guaranteed three-down back from the beginning, while Fournette may not see as much third-down action in the early stages of the year.
The Jaguars have a lot of mouths to feed on that offense, so Fournette will likely not get as many touches as Gurley. Both are capable of putting up RB1 numbers, but I’m trusting Gurley, who will carry the lion’s share of the offensive load for the Rams, as my pick. — Pick Gurley
Ty Montgomery (ADP: 52) vs. Dalvin Cook (ADP: 53)
I can’t believe this is even a comparable. People are head over heels about Cook. I just don’t understand the immediate love.
He’s a nice change-of-pace back, but he’s still a rookie in a eventual crowded backfield. Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon are both out with injury now, but presumably, they won’t be when the season starts.
That will create too much competition in a backfield that doesn’t have a dominating offensive line anyway. Cook will play a role with the Vikings. I just can’t trust that his role will feature enough touches to outclass Montgomery, who is only getting better as he adjusts to his new role as starting running back. I’m actually amazed that Montgomery is this low-rated. His stock may rise, so keep an eye on him in your draft. With an ADP of 52, that puts him in the early fifth round, which seems way too low for a legitimate three-down running back.
He’s a must add in the fourth/fifth rounds. — Pick Montgomery
Eddie Lacy (ADP: 62) vs. Adrian Peterson (ADP: 66)
What a difference a couple of years make. Peterson is in flux with the Saints and Lacy is with a Seattle team that struggled to run the football last year.
Both could benefit from their new teams, so there is some upside. Peterson could get plenty of goal line work and early down work, even with Mark Ingram as the presumed starter. And if Lacy is healthy and in shape, he should beat out Thomas Rawls as the featured back for the Seahawks.
However, despite the possible positives, both players present challenges. I have no idea what Peterson’s role will be in New Orleans. And Lacy has disappointed so often, it’s hard to trust him when there’s a competition.
For my money, I’ll side with Peterson, who is the better overall running back. He’s 32, so he’s on the downside of his career. However, he probably still has one pretty good season left in him, and at this level, he’s likely going to be a Flex option anyway.
He’ll have some struggles, but he has a good chance at putting up some major points, too. — Pick Peterson
