Nothing derails a fantasy football roster more than the first-round bust.

We’ve seen it every year. Whether it’s Adrian Peterson, who’s been a bust, not for his on-field play, but with suspensions and injuries, or just not living up to expectations like Eddie Lacy, Jamaal Charles and C.J. Anderson showed a few years ago, that first-round pick can make or break your entire team.

That begs the age-old question of going with the conservative pick or a high-upside pick. Obviously, the more conservative pick may not produce at a higher level, but there’s more stability barring possible injury, while the high-upside pick may be the best, but could also not perform at an expected level.

FantasyPros has rankings featuring a two-tiered approach for the top-14, with the top six being in the top tier, and the second eight being in the second tier. Let’s take a look at who is the most stable, and who has more bust capability.

Antonio Brown should have the Pittsburgh Steelers humming again. Flickr/http://bit.ly/1HYKdnl/Brook Ward

Stable

David Johnson, Antonio Brown, Le’Veon Bell and Julio Jones

That list is missing some of the top names, but in terms of players who just plain get it done every year, I’m trusting these guys. As long as Bell doesn’t get suspended, he’s probably the most tried and trued of everyone.

He’s going to be a focal part of the Pittsburgh offense and he’s been the main three-down back for years. He’s not at an age that we should see a depreciable difference in production, so he’s a pretty safe pick. The same goes with Brown and Jones. They’ve been doing the same thing for years and there’s zero reason to believe that will stop this year.

I’ll finish with Johnson on the list based on his production in his first two years. He’s still young in experience, so there’s not that same level of confidence of not busting as I do with the other three, but Johnson is a three-down back who will only be more of a part of Arizona’s offense this year.

Rankings: Johnson 1st, Bell 2nd, Brown 4th, Jones 5th

Some doubt, but still really good

Ezekiel Elliott, Odell Beckham Jr. and Mike Evans

Yes, I have Elliott as my No. 3 overall pick, too, but he’s still only in his second year. Can Dallas really be that good again? Elliott is going to play behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, so that bodes well for him.

I’m pretty sure he’s going to be a top-level performer each week, but I still have some doubt based on lack of evidence. I’ve seen one-year wonders fizzle out quickly before. I’m cautiously optimistic in Elliott.

Beckham and Evans also are really good, but Beckham is a head case, so there’s no telling what he’s going to do with actual other competent receivers on the roster. Having Brandon Marshall and a more experienced Sterling Shepard on the roster will take away some of his targets. How will handle having fewer passes thrown his way? I think he’ll be OK, but I’m not willing to bet the farm on it, like Jones and Brown.

Evans was the surprising leader among wide receivers, and I expect him to have another solid campaign. However, Tampa Bay also added some weapons that could take away from Evans’ regular production from last year.

Rankings: Elliott 3rd, Beckham 6th, Evans 8th

High upside, but risk

Melvin Gordon, Jordan Howard and Jordy Nelson

I like these players in that order. I anticipate Gordon will be the fourth-best running back overall, but there’s still some risk that goes along with him. The Chargers are not consistently a running back team. Gordon may not get enough touches, especially if the Chargers find themselves down early in games.

I’m optimistic that the Chargers change their approach to feature more of Gordon, but it wouldn’t shock me if he was under utilized again. And if I’m drafting a player in the first round, I expect him to have volume.

Howard is ranked 14th by FantasyPros, but I’m bullish on his potential. He’s an every down back, and while some are arguing he won’t see time on third downs, I disagree. He is going to get better and showed he can run through the tackles. That matters to head coach John Fox. With that being said, he’s only in his second year, and there is that risk of him being taken out on third downs. He has major upside, but proceed with caution.

Nelson is solid, but not great. He’s definitely not in the class of the previously mentioned receivers, but he will be a consistent play. His risk is if Aaron Rodgers doesn’t throw touchdown passes to him. His yardage total isn’t always the highest, but he makes up for it with touchdowns.

Rankings: Gordon 4th, Howard 14th, Nelson 13th

Risky Business

LeSean McCoy, A.J. Green, Jay Ajayi and Devonta Freeman 

Does anyone have bust written more on their helmet than Ajayi? Ajayi was pretty much the lone player that was worth anything on my team last year, so I thank him for that.

But he pretty much came out of nowhere and now I’m not sure if the Dolphins are all-in on him being the main bellcow again. This is Ryan Tannehill’s team and the Dolphins will only go as far as Tannehill can go. The weapons should be better for him, and I’ve seen way too many of these players have flash-in-the-pan moments for a season, and then disappear.

He was basically written off last year, before the Dolphins needed him and he produced. He makes me nervous. He has tremendous upside, but can I count on him as my dominant RB1?

McCoy isn’t in that same boat. He’s shown to be a quality, consistent running back who continually churns out fantasy points. I’m scared to death about his workload. He’s been one of the most used running backs in recent years and he’s not getting any younger. At some point his production is going to drop. I’m nervous this will be the year.

Freeman and Green’s risk is all tied to volume. Freeman has serious competition for carries with Tevin Coleman, and Green has Andy Dalton as his quarterback. If Dalton is off, then Green won’t produce. He’s not in the same category as the top receivers and last year’s injury has me a bit reserved when it comes to his potential.

Rankings: McCoy 7th, Green 10th, Ajayi 11th, Freeman 12th

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