If you haven’t tackled your fantasy baseball draft yet, be cautious when selecting those tried and true options.
It wasn’t all that long ago that fantasy experts were still talking about Peyton Manning’s greatness as a fantasy football quarterback. He was labeled a top-five option heading into 2015 and we all know how that ended.
Just because a player has been there before, doesn’t mean he’ll be back again this season. I tend to take the New England Patriots approach (I know, another football reference in a baseball story) and cut a guy loose a year too early instead of holding on for a year that will end in injury or a severe drop in production.
Generally I don’t like to completely stay away from players, especially considering they could lend value if they’re passed over until the later rounds. However, with these players’ average draft positions, they likely aren’t staying on the board long, meaning they won’t land on my fantasy baseball team.
Edwin Encarnacion, Toronto, 1B/DH
I listed him as a top-five option as a designated hitter, basically because there’s not much available. However, with an ADP of 21, I’m avoiding him like the plague.
If he slips to maybe the late fourth or early fifth round, there’s some value. But I’m not risking his potential that early in my fantasy baseball draft.
He will be 33 this year, which isn’t usually an age that would frighten me. However, this is Encarnacion’s 12th year in Major League Baseball. He came up as a 22-year-old for Cincinnati, meaning there’s a lot of wear and tear on his body.
According to several aging curves, good players start to see a decline once they hit 30. Encarnacion has been on the opposite trajectory, going for solid outputs during the last three seasons since turning 30.
At some point, though, the law of averages works. Injury may get him, despite his ability to stay relatively healthy in his career. He missed 34 games in 2014, but that’s the biggest strike against him in the last few years.
One item that does concern me is reports from Toronto saying the Blue Jays are unwilling to extend his contract, meaning they’re OK with developing this team in the future without him.
Did they see something in the offseason? Or are they cutting loose from an aging player that will likely drop off in production?
He’s been a machine in recent years, but I’m not banking on that same production. For a second-round price, I’m not buying.
Chris Davis, Baltimore, 1B/DH/OF
I don’t trust Davis in fantasy baseball.
The good version is the home-run smacking, high RBI-toting first basemen, who can also line up as an outfielder and DH.
The bad Davis is the injured, can’t-hit-above-.200 or get on base Oriole.
Last year was a great year, with 47 home runs and 117 RBIs. The year before was a different story with a .196 batting average, 26 homers and 72 RBIs.
In 2013, he hit 53 home runs. In 2012, he hit 33.
Oh, and did I mention he just signed a monster contract? I’m not saying that every time a player signs a big contract their numbers go down. But it does happen often, so I’m a little skeptical if Davis would buck the trend.
Davis also has been horrendous this spring. Although I don’t put hardly any weight on spring stats, it’s worth mentioning based on the likelihood that he could drop based on his contract.
He’s just too risky with an ADP of 27.
Jake Arrieta, Chicago Cubs, P
I didn’t fall off my roof last night and bump my head forgetting everything from the 2015 MLB season.
I just can’t wrap my head around a guy completely turning around his career to a Cy Young level at the age of 29. His ADP is 18th, putting him in the middle of the second round for 12-team fantasy baseball leagues.
Based on his performance last season, that might be a little low. He dominated his way through lineups, going for a 1.77 ERA, 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings and a .865 WHIP.
His WHIP has been a dominant force, along with strikeouts per innings, in the last two seasons. But he had a part of his career where he was just plain average, if not below-average.
With Baltimore, he never registered less than a 4.60 ERA and never won more than 10 games.
Then, for the last two seasons, he’s gone 32-11, with ERAs of 2.53 and 1.77.
I’m just not sold on that ability to dominate to continue. If he falls in the draft, which is unlikely given his big name and the love surrounding the Cubs, then I’d pick him up.
But I’m not drafting him in the second round. He’s given me two years of great seasons. I need a third before I’m putting him on my roster with a second-round pick, over a player from a different position where there’s fewer quality options.
