Don’t reach for a kicker.
That’s been the prevailing wisdom for years in fantasy football. And in today’s world of elongated extra points, that’s still as true today as it’s ever been.
In a standard 12-team league last season, if each team had one of the top-12 kickers, the overall separation during the season would have been 38 points, good enough for a 2.375 point differential per week from the top to the 12th-ranked kicker.
Put that up against another position that requires only one starter, the tight end, and that difference would have been 96.3 points. The quarterback position was 104 points and even defense, which also isn’t known to be a top priority, was 44 points.
It’s that way every year, so there’s no reason to reach for kickers. It doesn’t make near as much of a difference as picking up depth at the running back, quarterback or wide receiver positions. That’s why kicker should be one of your final picks in fantasy football drafts.
Here’s three sleepers to keep an eye on after some of your regular bottom-feeder owners pick up kickers earlier in the draft.
Blair Walsh, Minnesota
He has an issue making extra points at times — he missed four of those in the regular season last year — but there’s no denying the many opportunities he has on a regular basis.
He attempted the fourth-most field goals of any kicker in the league and converted 87 percent of those kicks, one of the best numbers among kickers with more than 35 attempts.
He also can net extra points for fantasy owners with his ability to hit the long ball. He managed six field goals at over 50 years last season, tied for second among kickers in the NFL.
As long as he doesn’t take a nosedive after missing a chip shot in last year’s playoffs against Seattle, Walsh could be a nice pickup with the ninth-best average draft position among kickers, according to FantasyPros.
Dan Carpenter, Buffalo
Part of the equation for finding some value with kickers is getting the most attempts. Carpenter should have no problem with that this year.
Last year was a down season for the usually reliable kicker. He had the lowest amount of attempts in a 16-game season since 2008 and he missed six extra points.
But I’m not devaluing him as much as other fantasy owners. He currently owns an ADP of 19, according to FantasyPros, which is ridiculous for a kicker in an offense like Buffalo’s, which will have issues punching the ball into the endzone.
In his first two seasons in Buffalo, Carpenter averaged 37 attempts per season and hit 90 percent of his kicks. Last season was an aberration. He has the best value of any kicker based on his potential to return to his regular, consistent self this season.
Josh Brown, New York Giants
The other part of finding quality value among kickers is locating accuracy. And while the attempts aren’t up as high as some of the other kickers, Brown is consistently one of the most accurate kickers in the NFL.
He’s been below 90 percent accuracy on field goals only once in the last four years — in 2013 at 88.5 percent. He still was a machine at extra points last season, making 44 of 45 kicks and he’s on an offense that I predict to be much improved this season, allowing more opportunities than what he’s been used to in the last few years.
His ADP is 14th among kickers, which is likely because of his lack of attempts. He hasn’t gone above 32 attempts since 2010.
But accuracy matters. Even with 32 attempts, the 11th-most in the NFL, he finished fifth last season in points among kickers.
He’s a quality option that will be passed over by several fantasy owners. That should work in your favor if waiting until the end to pick up a kicker.
