It’s not that I don’t believe Aaron Rodgers is the best quarterback in the NFL. He is. There’s little to debate about in that topic.
My issue with Rodgers is how high he will go in the 2017 fantasy football draft.
People love quarterbacks. And in fantasy football, having a quality starter is a nice bonus. But it’s only a bonus. Solid fantasy rosters can be constructed with a marginal quarterback. You can’t get that kind of roster with marginal players at running back or wide receiver.
That’s why I generally wait on the quarterback. It would have worked this year, too, had it not been for epic meltdowns by my contingent of running backs (Lamar Miller and Eddie Lacy’s injury).
And experts are already downplaying Rodgers in 2017. ESPN draft guru Matthew Berry has him ranked 35th, putting him at the end of the third round. Sports Illustrated has him even lower at 47, while the MMQB has him at 43.
That’s a solid ranking for Rodgers. The only issue is that Rodgers’s average draft position will be in the first round in 2017. Mark my words.
This past season, the hype train was all in on Cam Newton, giving him an ADP of 16, while Rodgers wasn’t far behind at 25. In 2015, people were jacked about Andrew Luck, giving him a second-round ADP. In 2014, it was Peyton Manning, with an ADP of 10.
But what those three seasons tell us is that quarterbacks — even who we perceive as being top-tier — are unpredictable. All three quarterbacks had far worse campaigns than the previous year when taken as the top quarterback. And it’s only one player at the position, while the running backs and wide receivers are two to three players at each level. If you whiff on a quarterback, they can be found on the waiver wire, through streaming options.
The wire isn’t so forgiving on running backs or wide receivers.
Rodgers is playing at a super human level at the moment, but can he possibly keep this up? There are real issues on Green Bay’s team and no matter what happens during the rest of this season, they have to address those concerns before next season, or Rodgers may be in trouble.
The defense, albeit banged up, is atrocious, and the offensive line does little to make room for a running game to compliment Rodgers. He’s the best in the game, but his saving grace is touchdown passes. And at some point, that won’t be able to bail him out in fantasy football.
He’s thrown for at least 30 touchdowns in five of the last six seasons. The only person who has put up more numbers in that span is Drew Brees. But touchdowns can only carry us so far.
Rodgers’s yardage output has never been off the charts. Since 2011, Rodgers hasn’t finished in the top-three in yards per game, and has only snuck into the top-five twice — in 2011 and 2012. If he’s not producing in the touchdown department, his value decreases sharply.
And during the first part of 2016, that was a glaring concern for fantasy owners. He failed to reach 20 fantasy points in three of his first five games, netting a combined four touchdowns in those three games.
Rodgers should be the first quarterback taken in fantasy football drafts. But he’s not worth a first or second round pick. There’s warning signs swirling all around him in fantasy football, so don’t reach for him.
