There’s little debate about who the top-four fantasy football wide receivers will be during the 2017 draft. After a run of running backs in the top-three, the consensus average draft position of picks four through seven are Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, Odell Beckham Jr. and Mike Evans.
But if you’re not picking up one of those guys, who’s left?
Most experts agree it’s A.J. Green. He currently owns an ADP of 11 overall, three spots higher than the next-highest wide receiver, Michael Thomas, at 14.
I’m not so sold on Green, though. Injuries have derailed his seasons two of the last three years. He also hasn’t finished in the top-six in targets since 2013.
His quarterback is terrible. Look at the top-four options and their quarterbacks: Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan, Eli Manning and Jameis Winston. Winston is on the rise and Manning is at least competent.
Andy Dalton is not a consistent high-volume passer who we can trust. Even when Green was on the field, he was only averaging a little more than eight targets per game last season. That’s good, but not in the same neighborhood as the elite wide receivers.
Green can go bonkers one week in fantasy points, but then follow it up with complete duds. Just look at last year for instance. He opened with 12 receptions, 180 yards and one touchdown in week 1. In weeks 2 and 3, he went for 10 total receptions, 115 yards and no touchdowns.
I can’t trust Dalton to throw touchdowns weekly, so Green shouldn’t get the love that many are thrusting on him.
Instead, I’ll focus more on the next four for better value in the second round, with Jordy Nelson, Thomas, Dez Bryant and T.Y. Hilton available.
Hilton is going to get you the most targets of this bunch. He has been in the top-10 in wide receiver targets every year but one since 2013. He also is going to get yards, since he led the league in receiving last season. His biggest challenge is scoring touchdowns, which likely won’t improve.
He’s going to be in single digits, and has yet to tally more than seven touchdowns in a season. He’s consistently going to get yards, but the fantasy points just won’t ever reach elite status.
The same should go for Bryant, who has a sophomore quarterback who I’m not trusting this year. The targets will be there. I just don’t know if they’ll be able to find the endzone enough, even with all the durability concerns Bryant possesses.
Of all the options, I’m fading Thomas, who I like, but is still unproven, and favoring Nelson. Just in the last day, his ADP has fallen, but I won’t be too concerned. He has the best quarterback in the NFL and Nelson is the favored target.
He’s not going to bust and he’s going to score touchdowns. Normally I don’t like touchdown-dependent options, but Rodgers knows how to throw touchdowns, and he just happens to like throwing them to Nelson. He’s a heavily targeted player, earning top-10 targets in the last two seasons he’s played, and there’s no reason that should stop this season.
It appears you may be able to get him on the cheap, too, so his value is tremendous if he falls to the second round.
