The 2017 fantasy football draft will feature rookies coming off the board. Some will go high and will hit — much like Ezekiel Elliott. And most will go too high and disappoint — see Melvin Gordon from two years ago.
We all want to believe our rookie fantasy football players will turn out like Elliott or Randy Moss, but the reality is that the majority of those players just aren’t ready for consistent scoring in fantasy football.
That doesn’t mean their rookie year should define them. Laquon Treadwell was a first-round pick in the 2016 NFL draft and barely played. He was a fantasy football bust of epic proportions.
But we shouldn’t dismiss him this year. Some players take longer to develop. Just look at Jacksonville’s Marqise Lee. Lee floundered in his first two seasons before having a breakout season last year.
So while these rookies are ones I’m avoiding in 2017, it doesn’t mean they shouldn’t be considered a fantasy option at some point in the future.
Mike Williams, Wide Receiver
Everyone is going to jump on the Williams train in fantasy football. And after what we saw last season, there’s likely good reason.
It’s pretty clear now that Deshaun Watson pretty much just threw up balls to Williams and allowed him to make plays. That scares me to death about Watson and gives me solid evidence that Williams will be a solid pro.
But wide receivers generally take a little longer to develop in the NFL. There are some exceptions, like Amari Cooper and Kelvin Benjamin, but for the most part, it takes awhile to make the transition.
That means it may be a few weeks before Williams becomes a more targeted player, which would mean he could be dropped in several leagues before becoming that team’s No. 1 option.
He’s a bid-bodied receiver that will likely be a fantasy stud at some point in his career. But for 2017, I’m passing on him based on the uncertainty of his role within the offense.
Rookie Quarterbacks
Remember when everyone jumped on Marcus Mariota in fantasy football after week 1 of his 2015 rookie campaign? He threw four touchdowns in his first game and he was the star of fantasy football.
How did that work out? Not very well then and it definitely won’t work out well this season. No one in this draft can hold a candle to Mariota (who I do value in his third season).
Just because Dak Prescott was a machine last year doesn’t mean that will happen again. There will be at least one rookie starting in week 1, but don’t pay attention to those early returns.
Lightning won’t strike again in this bottle, so let some other fantasy owner make the mistake of hitching their wagon to a rookie quarterback.
Dalvin Cook, Running Back
I also like Cook, but I don’t love him in his first year.
He’s not an every-down back like Leonard Fournette, so at best he’ll either be a change-of-pace back or third-down back during his first year.
That doesn’t lend itself to consistent scoring. He’s a burner, so he could break open some big runs. But this is the NFL, where those holes aren’t near the size he was used to in college.
Cook is one of those players who can make a mark in this league, but there will be an adjustment period. Don’t take the bait on his likely high Average Draft Position heading into 2017.
