The running back bust is hard to avoid.
Fantasy football rosters must have running backs. Injuries, shared carries and an utter lack of quality options necessitate some reaches. It’s similar to the quarterback position in actual football. There’s only a handful of difference-makers, but if you don’t have one who can consistently deliver for you, then your team is in trouble.
Last year was the epitome of why busts are just a natural part of fantasy football drafts for running backs. Le’Veon Bell, Jamaal Charles, Eddie Lacy, C.J. Anderson and Justin Forsett were just a few examples of big names that delivered small results.
Injuries, suspensions and just a lack of production combined to make those players major bustS in 2015.
But you can’t get discouraged about running backs at the top of your draft board based on a previous year’s worth of busts. Running backs are important. In my opinion, they’re the most important part of your roster, since your league likely has two starters and a flex option each week.
Wide receivers can be found later on the waiver wire and can be picked up in matchup-specific situations. Running backs can’t.
But when you start combing over who to take this year, there’s still some players who are overrated and shouldn’t be picked at the current average draft position level. Here’s two of those players to avoid this year.
Adrian Peterson, Minnesota
I love Peterson. He was my top player on the draft board last season, and while he wasn’t the top running back performer from last season, he should be considered one of the best first-round picks, based on the multitude of busts.
But this is a new year and I’m hedging my bet on the all-time great. At some point, Peterson is going to slow down. He’s a freak, but even freaks eventually break down.
And while Peterson managed the second-most points among running backs last season, he had to work hard for every inch it seemed. In his final five games, he managed only one plus-100 yard rushing performance. In the previous 11 games, he went for more than 100 yards six times.
If he’s not churning out a big amount of yards on the ground, he won’t produce in the passing game. He topped 30 yards receiving only once last season.
I’m expecting a much bigger role for Jerick McKinnon this season as the Vikings prepare for life without Peterson in the near future, making it difficult for Peterson to live up to his ADP of 3 among running backs.
He’s been a solid option and will likely still deliver a decent amount of points. However, I’m scared of injury and a diminished production level from the consistently top-tier fantasy running back has me backing away from him that high in the draft.
Le’Veon Bell, Pittsburgh
He’s good. There’s no doubt about that. But will he see the field?
He’s suspended again, but according to FantasyPros, he’s still listed with an ADP of 1 among running backs. That’s too high for a player who can’t stay on the field because of suspensions and injuries.
When he’s actually playing, he’s dynamic, with the rare ability to run and catch the football.
Even if he was going to see the field right away, I still wouldn’t take him first among running backs. There’s way too many weapons on the Steelers to trust that Bell will have a similar season to 2014, when he rushed for 1,361 yards and caught 83 balls for 854 yards.
The Steelers offense is potent, but I’ve only seen Bell put up those big numbers once in his career.
Bell would be a sneaky, good pick early in the second round, but he’s not worth a top draft pick.
