I’m going to go up to the top 100 picks, and then spell out a few other players who I’m targeting later in my draft, including my favorite kicker and where to take him, and my favorite defense.
The average draft positions are changing some, so we’ll avoid looking at players twice, and move them around accordingly.
According to average draft positions in a standard 12-team league, here’s the 12 players in order that will likely be taken in the eighth round and beyond:
85. Danny Woodhead, Baltimore
86. Derrick Henry, Tennessee
87. Martellus Bennett, Green Bay
88. DeSean Jackson, Tampa Bay
89. Robert Kelley, Washington
90. Donte Moncrief, Indianapolis
91. Randall Cobb, Green Bay
92. Eric Decker, Tennessee
93. Dak Prescott, Dallas
94. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh
95. Pierre Garcon, San Francisco
96. Kareem Hunt, Kansas City
97. Zach Ertz, Philadelphia
98. Jonathan Stewart, Carolina
99. Jeremy Maclin, Baltimore
100. Terrance West, Baltimore
Best Bet
Derrick Henry — I’m going to attack three running backs before I reach the eighth round, but I’m going to build my first fantasy football bench seat with Henry. Tennessee is a fantasy football owner’s dream for owning a running back. The team will run and do it well, as seen last year with DeMarco Murray. And while Murray is the main man this year again, I just don’t see him being healthy the entire season. Murray is one of the most well-worn running backs in the NFL and has battled injury issues in the past. Henry will likely get a shot at the top spot, and when he does, he easily has the potential to be an RB1. And with a price this late in the fantasy draft, he can’t be passed up, even with the uncertainty of playing time.
More certainty
Pierre Garcon — I’m targeting Garcon a little higher than others. Brian Hoyer isn’t terrible. He had one really bad game in the playoffs a couple of years ago with Houston and that has completely tarnished his image. Garcon has a decent quarterback slinging him the ball (don’t forget about DeAndre Hopkins’ numbers a couple of years ago with Hoyer) and he should garner plenty of volume. San Francisco will likely find itself down in some games, so Garcon is the most plausible player to garner plenty of targets. He has two 1,000-yard seasons in the last four years and this is his opportunity to be the main weapon. There’s really no one else that should get much volume in the 49ers offense, so I don’t mind reaching for Garcon.
Other receivers offer value
This is why I don’t go crazy for wide receivers after the first round. There’s a lot of depth later in fantasy football rounds. Moncrief and Decker offer the best possibilities for solid, consistent play. Moncrief is a beast inside the red zone on a team known for throwing. I’d like to see his targets increase, but it’s hard to ignore his ability to score touchdowns. Decker, on the other hand, may not be a touchdown magnet, but he should be a good possession receiver for a Titans team poised to throw more. Decker is being offered a second chance in Tennessee after being a good option for the New York Jets when healthy. He’s going to attract a good amount of targets, so his volume will be higher than other receivers at this level.
While I like Garcon, Moncrief and Decker’s values, I’m skipping Jackson, Maclin and Cobb. For Cobb, there’s just too many mouths to feed in Green Bay’s offense. Davante Adams has passed Cobb as a primary receiver, so this is too high of a place to lock in a player who won’t command the same attention as years past. With Maclin and Jackson, they are your typical boom or bust receivers. They will have big weeks, but they’ll also have duds. I’d rather side with higher volume receivers, who will be a bit more consistent.
Prescott’s surprising ADP
The push for the Dallas Cowboys is at an all-time high, so I’m a little surprised Prescott is actually not going higher than this. I’m all in on the sophomore slump, but even at this level, he’s worth a look. He’ll be the dominant figure in that offense without Ezekiel Elliott and the offensive line is still elite. Prescott offers two ways to score with his arm and legs, so he’s not a bad play at this level. We all anticipate a lower production out of Prescott, but even this low is a bit surprising.
Any other running backs?
Of the remaining running backs, I’d side with Woodhead having a resurgence in Baltimore. The Ravens are in need of a more versatile running back and Woodhead delivers a lot for the Ravens. Baltimore is actually a high-volume passing attack, so Woodhead should have several opportunities at success. He shouldn’t be your RB2, but he does offer some value as a Flex option. The Ravens need an offensive spark and Woodhead does offer that for the team. The only issue with Woodhead is if he is going to be used appropriately. West also will get some work, especially on early downs, so that will cut into Woodhead’s production level.
Players to target beyond
103. Cameron Meredith — He has an ADP of 103, so that’s quality value for likely the top option for the Bears offense. Chicago will be down plenty this year, so they’ll go to the air often. At least in the preseason, it appears Meredith will be the main weapon to garner those targets.
114. Justin Tucker — Pretty much everyone would disagree with me on this, but I do value the kicker position. Having a solid kicker takes away at least one weekly worry. And nobody is better at the kicking game than Tucker. By this point in the draft, you should have all of your starters already on the roster. You could either take a shot in the dark or load up on a player that you don’t have to worry about.
126. Arizona Cardinals — The Cardinals are going off as the No. 5 defense and have plenty of weapons to score on the defensive side of the ball. If you’re looking for high output with players capable of scoring touchdowns, the Cardinals are a solid bet that you don’t have to risk a high pick either.
138. Jacquizz Rodgers — Rodgers will likely be the starter for at least three weeks and may continue to see the field plenty after that.
162. Tyler Lockett — Before injury, Lockett was playing better last season. I’m not passing on him at this price.
