With the third week of the Major League Baseball season upon us, some of those surprising fantasy baseball stars have continued to produce.
Sure, there’s the players we expected to start out well, like Bryce Harper, Chris Sale, Manny Machado and Nolan Arenado, showcasing their true colors, but there’s also some pleasant surprises that continue to put up the fantasy points.
The key issue is whether these players can continue their stellar starts. You know that Machado and Arenado are top-flight, no-trade players, but those players like Trevor Story or Eugenio Suarez should cause some discussion on how to handle their future on your fantasy roster.
I’m looking at three surprising fantasy baseball options and deciphering how to handle their future spot on fantasy rosters.
Daniel Murphy, Washington, 2B
Murphy went crazy last year in the playoffs for the New York Mets. In 64 plate appearances, he mashed seven homers and hit .328. He parlayed that success into landing a free agent contract with the Nationals, where he’s continuing that hot hitting.
Before the season started, fantasy experts weren’t buying the new-look Murphy, ranking him 15th among second basemen, according to Fantasy Pros. It’s hard to blame people for ranking him so low, considering there’s plenty of historical background to tell us that the playoffs were a semi-fluke.
He’s a career .290 hitter and averages about 11 homers a season to go along with 73 RBIs. So far this season, though, he’s proving to be more like his playoff self.
He leads MLB with a .415 average through 48 plate appearances, to go along with a .500 on-base percentage. He’s added eight RBIs and seven runs for fantasy owners.
Why it will last: The playoffs opened his eyes to his true potential. He was once a 13th round selection and cruised through the Minors to make his debut two years after being drafted. He has been a consistent starter since 2009 and is finally finding his groove.
He caught fire starting in August of last year, batting .333, but he was actually a solid performer in four of the six months last season. He batted over .300 in three months last year and shook off a bad start (batting .198 in April), to get his average to respectability by the end of the season. He’s starting to be more disciplined at the plate and has shown the ability to drive in runs.
Why it won’t last: He’s a flash in the pan, still using the momentum generated from last year’s playoff run. He doesn’t offer any advantage in specific categories in his career, other than possibly batting average with a career mark of .280. And while he’s driven in runs at a decent clip this season, that doesn’t line up to what he’s been able to do in the past.
His seven home runs in the playoffs were half of what he totaled in the entire 2015 season. He’s a streaky hitter that will soon see his production dip to his normal levels.
Verdict: I tend to side with this won’t last. It’s a nice story, but we have plenty of evidence on him. He doesn’t do anything spectacular, and as he comes back to earth, he won’t offer much for fantasy owners. I would attempt to trade him right away before he falters.
Joe Mauer, Minnesota, 1B/DH
It’s almost silly that Mauer is on this list as a surprising baseball player, considering he’s been one of the most consistent weapons in MLB for the last decade.
But recently, he’s been below-average in producing for fantasy owners, going for batting averages of .277 and .265 in the last two seasons. He’s never been a guy that is a major producer in other categories, so his batting average and on-base percentages has been his calling card for years.
So far this year, he’s producing at a high rate. He’s batting .362 with an on-base percentage of .456 through 53 plate appearances this season. He’s not doing much of anything else, but with batting numbers like that, the other categories will likely start increasing over time.
Why it will last: Mauer has a lot of years under his belt, but that shouldn’t deter people from seeing what’s happening in front of their eyes. Sure, he’s been pretty bad during the last two seasons, but good hitters have shown the ability to last through their 30s.
His power is all but gone, but he’s seeing the ball at a solid clip this year. He has eight walks compared to four strikeouts, which are far more representative of his career numbers than the past two seasons. In 2014 and 2015, he struck out 208 times compared to drawing 127 walks. During the years he was one of the best in MLB, he was walking more than striking out.
Why it won’t last: Mauer is 33 years old and is showing a vast decline during the past two seasons. That happens to players who have caught for the majority of their careers. It’s difficult to ignore the past two seasons with only a small sample size this season. And if his numbers fall just a little with batting average and on-base percentage, he hasn’t shown the ability to pick up production in other categories like RBIs, runs or home runs. He has a combined 15 homers in the last three season, and only has four RBIs so far this season.
Verdict: I’m actually siding with this lasting for Mauer. Great hitters don’t see a drastic decline like some baseball players do. I consider the last two seasons to be an aberration, and he will continue his solid streak at the plate. He won’t do much else, but he can offer plenty of value in the batting average and on-base percentage categories.
Hector Santiago, Los Angeles Angels, SP
Santiago improved to 1-0 Monday thanks to a lifeless batting order in Chicago. He dominated a White Sox lineup that has struggled since traveling to Tampa Bay.
But that’s been a consistent storyline for Santiago through three starts this season. He’s logged 20.2 innings and is allowing opposing batters to hit .176 against him so far this season. That number is a top-15 ranking in MLB, just behind Jordan Zimmerman at .174.
His ERA is solid at 2.61 and his WHIP is below 1.00 at 0.92. However, despite the start, he’s still only owned in 17.6 percent of leagues on ESPN.com.
Why it will last: Santiago has nasty stuff. He didn’t have much experience before being drafted by the Chicago White Sox and has consistently shown the ability at times to be nasty. He’s still young in his development as a pitcher and he keeps getting better. Last season, he started the most games of his career and managed to record his best career WHIP at 1.256. In his three starts this season, he’s logged at least six innings in each start. Because of his late transition into starting pitching, his arm should still be live and it appears he’s continuing to learn how to manage a game successfully as a pitcher.
Why it won’t last: Despite having great stuff at times, Santiago has also shown the inability to piece it together for long stretches at a time. He allowed 1.4 home runs per nine innings last season, the most of his career, and that number has stayed steady in his first three starts this season. He’s limiting his walks this year, but he has a career average of allowing four walks per nine innings. He hasn’t proven to be a quality starter over the long haul, so he will provide plenty of bumps throughout the season.
Verdict: This will last for Santiago. He’s extremely young in his development as a starting pitcher and he looks to be improving each year. He has a career average of 8.3 strikeouts per nine innings, and that appears to be on the rise this season, with an 8.7 mark already. He’s worth an add in fantasy leagues based on the potential of him continuing to get better.
