If you’ve read this blog at all, you’ve realized my distaste for the quarterback position in fantasy football.
It’s not that I don’t love Cam Newton or Aaron Rodgers or Andrew Luck. It’s just that I can find tremendous value later in the draft and there’s just not enough consistent separation for a one-starter position. Maybe in Peyton Manning’s heyday would I consider drafting a quarterback high.
But in today’s world, I can find a Blake Bortles (last year) and even a Newton (last year) later in my draft.
So who are those quarterbacks who can go from outside the top-10 to being a consistently good fantasy football quarterback this season?
Here’s three quarterbacks who I like to make a run at being top-10 fantasy options this season.
Derek Carr, 12th ranked ADP
This shows just how deep the quarterback position has become. Carr finished with a 32-to-13 touchdown to interception ratio last season and turned in almost 4,000 yards passing in only his second year in the league.
That’s solid numbers for a second-year pro. But fantasy experts are a little down on Carr, thanks to his numbers coming at times in garbage time and a completion percentage that ranked 23rd in the league, just ahead of Matt Hasselbeck.
But his trajectory shows improvement during his first two years and he has a revamped offensive line in front of him. He, along with his teammates, have been atrocious in the preseason. But it’s preseason for a reason and I don’t care.
Picking Carr is a sign that you trust his development. Because if he continues to improve, he will easily land in the top-10 of fantasy quarterbacks. If he remains at status quo, then this is likely the right spot.
I generally love third-year players and Carr has done nothing in the past to prove otherwise that he will show improvement. Carr is a great reason why you should wait on a quarterback.
Tony Romo, 13th ranked ADP
Romo is in this position strictly because of his injury history. Fantasy owners are tired of having to replace him with another waiver wire quarterback a few games into the season.
I get that. But it’s a bad strategy. Romo has the best offensive line in front of him. He has one of the best receivers at his disposal. And he has a trusted tight end who can bail him out of certain situations.
There’s risk, so if you draft Romo, you better have a capable backup. But he’s a slam dunk if he stays healthy. During his last full year of health in 2014, he led the league in completion percentage at 69.9 percent and had a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 34 to 9. His quarterback rating was 113.2.
The year before, he still only threw 10 interceptions compared to 31 touchdowns. From 2011 to 2014 when he was healthy, he was a top-10 fantasy quarterback. Now after a major injury and a slow start to last season, he is outside the starting quarterbacks for a 12-team league.
Don’t be fooled by injury. Romo is another great reason to wait on the quarterback position so you can gobble up more running backs and wide receivers.
Jameis Winston, 17th ranked ADP
I love Winston as a high-value backup for my fantasy football team. Currently, he has an overall ADP of 133, with it extending to 165 on one fantasy football platform. That puts him in the 11th round on average, which reduces risk for a player who could push his way into that top-10 tier of fantasy quarterbacks.
During his rookie season, Winston knocked on the door of being in the top-10, finishing 13th among quarterbacks in fantasy points. He threw for more than 4,000 yards, and while he threw for too many interceptions last season, that should come down a little during his second season.
He’s supposed to be the next great thing for quarterbacks, and much like Carr, he hasn’t disappointed.
He has quality skill position players around him and the Buccaneers should be better this season. Winston’s been a consistent developer throughout his football career and this could be a season where his improvement is on full display.
Don’t draft him as a starter, but if he’s your backup, he could be a major acquisition as the season progresses.
