Welcome to today’s NFL, where you never know who will top the fantasy running back chart. Rob Kelley was the surprise culprit in week 11 after he rumbled for 31.70 points against a reeling Green Bay defense.
But we shouldn’t be surprised by a new running back leading the pack in fantasy scoring. Only one player has topped the fantasy scoring list among running backs more than once this season. And I’m sure you guessed that player was Melvin Gordon.
I still believe in the power of running backs because of the mass amounts of injuries that occur within that position and the lack of quality options. However, it’s becoming more apparent this season that if you don’t nab the top four, then it might be best to wait on running backs.
David Johnson, Ezekiel Elliott, DeMarco Murray and Gordon are separated by 27 fantasy points. Johnson and Elliott were first-round picks, while Murray and Gordon were taken in later rounds.
But if you don’t have the top-four, this season is showing you that other running backs don’t have much in terms of consistency. Gordon ranks fourth with 180 fantasy points. The fifth-best running back in terms of fantasy, LeGarrette Blount, has 153 points, while the sixth-best has 137.
Normally I’m a hard-lined early running back drafter, but this season is showing me that might not be the best option going forward. This is worth keeping an eye as the weeks come to a close in preparation of the 2017 draft.
For the current state of running back affairs, here’s the week 12 running backs start ’em, sit ’em guide.
Start
Frank Gore vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
This is less about Pittsburgh’s ability to stop the run and is more about Andrew Luck’s health.
Reports are indicating Luck is in the concussion protocol, meaning Indianapolis is slated to start Scott Tolzien. That means Gore should get plenty of attention.
And that makes him a possible RB1 with the volume he already receives with Luck at the helm. Gore has at least 17 carries in four of the last five games. He doesn’t turn it into a ton of yards, but with that kind of volume, good things will eventually happen.
I expect that volume to increase against a Pittsburgh defense that doesn’t normally see teams run against it. Teams are attempting only 22.7 rushes per game against the Steelers. When teams do rush the ball, they have decent success, generating 4.2 yards per carry, the 13th-highest total in the NFL.
The Colts will run the football more than 22 times in this game. That gives Gore great volume and he should be able to produce at a decent level.
Rashad Jennings vs. Cleveland Browns
It’s a no-brainer to go against the Browns, but up until a few weeks ago, it would have been a difficult play to put Jennings in your starting lineup.
It appeared that Jennings was losing the starring role to Paul Perkins, making all New York running backs a liability in fantasy. Lately, though, Jennings hasn’t only returned to being the main starter, but the Giants are suddenly using him in a semi-workhorse role.
Jennings was the main option once again in week 11, going for a season-high 21 carries and 85 yards. Perkins isn’t a legitimate candidate anymore to Jennings’ job, allowing me to recommend Jennings as a top-flight fantasy option in week 12 against Cleveland’s rush defense. The Browns are second-worst in the NFL in rushing defense (normally this column would recommend someone against San Francisco, but they are playing Miami, meaning everyone already knows to start Jay Ajayi), and it’s not getting any better.
With the Giants using Jennings more in recent weeks, he should easily be an RB2 against the Browns.
Thomas Rawls vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It has taken a lot of patience to get to this point, but Rawls is finally paying dividends on that late third-round, early fourth-round grade in the preseason.
Rawls was supposed to be the featured back for the Seahawks at the beginning of the season. He faltered, didn’t produce and then has been injured since week 2. Now, seemingly healthy, and the rest of the running backs in Seattle injured, Rawls is back in that featured role and should be one of the most important fantasy waiver wire pieces in the closing weeks.
Seattle is still an offense that likes to run the ball and the offense is getting better. That spells danger to the rest of the NFC and for anyone who dropped Rawls to the waiver wire.
This week he should easily be in the RB2 discussion against a Tampa Bay rush defense that ranks ninth-worst against the run in the NFL. Rawls will get plenty of volume and will likely deliver for fantasy owners.
Sit
LeGarrette Blount vs. New York Jets
I know it’s strange to put Blount in the sit category, but I have a bad feeling for his fantasy prospects heading into week 12.
The Jets are stout against the run and New England is one of the best teams in the NFl at staying away from opposing teams’ strengths. Blount will likely see far less volume than he’s seen in recent weeks and we can’t always depend on him putting up big fantasy numbers.
Sometimes, fantasy points are deceiving, and for Blount, he’s generating big numbers through touchdowns. That always makes me nervous, especially against good run defenses. Blount has scored at least one touchdown in eight of 10 games this season, but has garnered more than 70 yards rushing in only four of those 10 games.
He’s a touchdown-dependent running back who shouldn’t be trusted in week 12.
Isaiah Crowell vs. New York Giants
It’s not just the Cleveland Browns’ season going down the tubes. A once promising fantasy season for Crowell is also on a free fall.
Crowell has now tallied three straight games with single-digit fantasy points, netting less than 10 carries in each game. He hasn’t gone for more than 12 carries in the last six games and he’s not producing with those carries.
Head coach Hue Jackson falls in love with the pass, which is amazing considering his quarterback options. That takes away Crowell’s value, even when he’s attempting to catch balls out of the backfield. He was once a surprise fantasy contributor, but now he’s not in the conversation as an RB2.
The Giants are a top-10 rushing defense and the Browns will likely be playing catch-up in this one anyway, rendering Crowell as a useless fantasy option.
Jeremy Hill vs. Baltimore Ravens
It’s likely that many experts would support starting Hill with Giovani Bernard out with injury. But Baltimore’s defense is too tough on opposing running backs to blindly start Hill.
Even with Bernard out, Hill may not see all the action catching the ball out of the backfield. And when the Bengals do attempt to run, it’s more than an educated guess that they will be stopped.
Baltimore still owns the NFL’s best rushing defense and are allowing opposing teams to rush for less than 80 yards per game. That likely won’t be a problem against the Bengals either, since Cincinnati has struggled all season running the football.
Cincinnati isn’t used to being in this position of being left out of the playoffs. I expect a downward trend to keep happening with the Bengals.
