Week 15 showed the versatility of fantasy football running backs.

Six running backs went for 20 or more points, including regular staples David Johnson, Ezekiel Elliott, Devonta Freeman and LeSean McCoy, while Ty Montgomery and Ryan Mathews made relatively surprise appearances in the top-six.

This season has proven once again that running backs are the most valuable commodity in fantasy football, especially if you were lucky enough to draft Johnson or Elliott. But McCoy and Freeman, when healthy, are capable of exploding during any given week, especially when matched up against terrible run defenses.

McCoy has another major plus-side matchup in week 16 against Miami, while Freeman should find some room to run against Carolina.

For the rest of the fantasy running backs, here’s the week 16 running backs start ’em, sit ’em guide.

Start

Ty Montgomery vs. Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota’s defense just isn’t playing the way it once did.

It was absolutely annihilated in week 15 against an Indianapolis team that wasn’t exactly scorching the earth offensively, and the Vikings haven’t been dominant against the run. Minnesota is now ranked 15th against the run among NFL teams and has allowed eight of the previous nine opponents to churn out at least 90 yards or more on the ground.

The rushing defense just can’t stop teams, forcing the defense to be out there in large chunks. Having an offense that can’t move the ball also doesn’t help.

And I expect the Packers to focus on utilizing Montgomery, similar to what they did in week 15. With James Starks out of the lineup, Montgomery was the featured back without much competition. When given the opportunity to run the football this year, Montgomery has done so by gaining a good amount per carry.

He’s gaining a healthy 5.1 yards per carry and that shouldn’t stop in week 16 against an overrated rush defense in Minnesota.

Adrian Peterson should be fine in week 16. Flickr/http://bit.ly/1fo7Sqm/Mike Morbeck

Adrian Peterson vs. Green Bay Packers

We’ll stay with this game for the moment.

Peterson came back in week 15 and proceeded to provide fantasy football owners with a dismal performance. But even though his initial performance wasn’t great, I can’t ignore past history.

He’s a high-volume running back who will definitely see an added amount of carries in week 16. Indianapolis jumped on the Vikings last week, necessitating the Vikings to abandon the run and go only with the pass. That’s not the way Minnesota can win games, so if it still believes it can make the playoffs, they have to keep feeding the ball to Peterson.

The offensive line is in shambles, but Peterson has always been a big-play back, who can be stuffed five straight times, only to break off a 70-yard run. Nobody does that better than Peterson, so even if this offensive line is the worst in the NFL, Peterson can still break off the big run.

What also has me siding with Peterson is that running backs still have scored plenty of Minnesota’s touchdowns this season. Eight of Minnesota’s 22 touchdowns have come on the ground. That’s a pretty good percentage in the NFL for rushing touchdowns.

Even if you don’t get the major amount of yardage, there’s still the possibility for a touchdown or two.

Rob Kelley vs. Chicago Bears

The week 15 production from Kelley wasn’t awesome on the ground. He gained only eight yards on nine carries. But he did add a rushing touchdown and was involved in the passing game.

That’s a good sign for fantasy owners.

Even when Kelley struggles on the ground, the Redskins are still utilizing him. That makes him a more desirable option going forward, especially against a Chicago defense that just allowed Montgomery to explode against it in week 15.

The Bears own a bottom-10 rush defense and the Redskins are going to look to get things going on the ground with their backs against the wall. Kelley has five touchdowns in the last five games and he should have more production on the ground this week against a porous Bears rush defense.

Sit

Ryan Mathews vs. New York Giants

I screwed up in week 15. I said to sit any Philadelphia running back and then Mathews proceeded to have a solid fantasy outing.

That won’t happen again in week 16.

New York brings a top-six rushing defense into Philadelphia. On top of that, how can we trust Philadelphia on the offensive side of the football?

Mathews is consistently under double-digits in fantasy points, thanks to limited work. He garnered 20 carries in week 15 against Baltimore. But can we expect that kind of output again?

He’s been in single digits in carries in four of the previous eight games. My trust level for Mathews isn’t enough that I would gamble my championship game on him being an RB2.

Tevin Coleman vs. Carolina Panthers

Atlanta’s backfield is a nightmare to predict in fantasy football. So if you have Coleman or Freeman for that matter, you’re probably used to the weekly nightmare scenarios playing in your head about work and playing time.

Coleman isn’t a volume back generally and that should hurt his chances at making an impact this week in fantasy.

Carolina is a top-three rushing defense, limiting opponents to less than 90 yards rushing per game.

And while Coleman has been a solid RB2 on most occasions for fantasy owners, he’s been skimpy on his production in recent weeks. In three of his last four games, he’s gone for seven or fewer fantasy points.

That’s not going to get it done in championship week. He’s the running back who’s more difficult to trust than Freeman, so if you have a better running back available, I would sit Coleman on my bench.

Isaiah Crowell vs. San Diego Chargers

Sometimes you get things right and I hit the nail on the head with Crowell last week. Everyone was hammering Crowell as a starter after Buffalo’s terrible rush defense performance against Pittsburgh.

But the Bills focused on stopping the run, giving way to Robert Griffin III to have a decent fantasy day, while Crowell mustered less than 30 yards rushing.

I’m anticipating a similar result in week 16.

Crowell’s 100-yard rushing effort in week 14 was an aberration. He’s not able to eke out a good yards per carry, with a 3.5 average, and he’s been below 50 yards rushing in six of the last seven weeks.

San Diego owns a top-10 rushing defense and is a bottom-10 pass defense. I expect Griffin III to have another decent fantasy day, while Crowell gets lost in the shuffle.

 

 

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