While the wide receiver position and sometimes quarterback position has given us several top-five performances from sleeper candidates, running backs are showing that 2016 is the re-emergence of top-tier fantasy running backs.
Ezekiel Elliott and David Johnson are consistently in the top-five. LeSean McCoy, Le’Veon Bell and Mark Ingram also are usually near the top. They were all there again in week 12, showing us once again that top-level running backs are a must in any fantasy draft.
It’s not always certain to hit those running backs at the top of the draft, i.e. Todd Gurley and Adrian Peterson. But when you do, running backs can consistently get fantasy owners high volume and solid fantasy value.
That’s something to keep in mind for 2017. For those questionable calls, here’s the week 13 running backs start ’em, sit ’em list.
Start
Devontae Booker vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Life hasn’t been easy with Booker.
On the plus side, Denver uses him as a workhorse. He has 24 carries apiece in the last two games.
The only issue is that he’s run for at most 79 yards in those two games, meaning his yards per carry is a little more than 3. That’s bad and it may lead to less work to find a running back more capable of getting bigger chunks of yards.
However, I believe Booker should have more ease in running against a Jacksonville team not known for its run defense. The Jaguars have a bottom-10 rush defense and the Broncos will be forced to establish the run since the Jaguars do own a decent pass defense.
LeSean McCoy was bottled up for most of week 12 before breaking open his big day with a 75-yard touchdown run. I expect Booker to have more holes than McCoy, and the Jaguars are susceptible to long runs, as seen in previous weeks.
The Broncos will pound the ball constantly and I can’t ignore that volume.
Kenneth Dixon vs. Miami Dolphins
I’m taking a shot with this one.
Baltimore’s running back situation is as inconsistent as they come. However, it appears that Dixon is overtaking that No. 1 running back spot, and it couldn’t have come at a better time for his fantasy owners.
The Dolphins are atrocious against the run. Miami allows the third-most rushing yards in the NFL and gives up 4.6 yards per carry, also the third-most in the NFL. Every team can run on them, so the Ravens may even have an opportunity to garner some rushing yards.
And when they do, expect Dixon over Terrance West. Dixon outsnapped West last week and finished the game with 17 touches. I expect even a few more touches this week, putting him in play for RB2 work.
Chris Ivory vs. Denver Broncos
Keep an eye on Ivory’s health, but if he’s good to go, I expect him to have a better-than-advertised day against Denver’s rush defense.
The Broncos just haven’t been that great against the run this season. They own the sixth-worst rush defense, allowing 120 yards per game. The main issue for Denver is that no one wants to pass against them, so teams rely on the running game.
And that’s what Jacksonville’s been doing for the last few weeks with a new offensive coordinator. If I had a crystal ball, that’s what I would assume the Jaguars would do in week 13, too.
The backfield situation in Jacksonville isn’t great, but if Ivory’s healthy, this is his team. Ivory was in line for a big game in week 12 against Buffalo before exiting with a hamstring injury. T.J. Yeldon is still nursing an ankle injury, so if Ivory is healthy, he should dominate the snaps.
Some are avoiding this backfield, but I consider Ivory a sleeper pick if he suits up.
Sit
Frank Gore vs. New York Jets
With Andrew Luck likely back, I don’t see much hope for Gore in the Monday Night Football matchup.
Gore’s been a decent fantasy surprise, regularly putting up double-digit points. However, if he’s not scoring touchdowns, he’s not generally worth a start. He has more than 100 yards rushing in only one game this season, and his rushing total for the last two weeks is 78 yards on 33 carries.
He’s made up for it with some receiving yards, especially in week 11, but I can’t depend on that against a stout New York rush defense.
Gore likely won’t get the same volume he’s seen in recent weeks, and I don’t see the Colts being so far ahead that they’ll have to focus more on the run. The Jets should be able to play with Indianapolis, making this a game where Luck will have to throw more than people think.
New York owns a top-five rushing defense and the Colts will bypass the running game and will look to shred New York’s below-average passing defense.
Minnesota Running Backs
Matt Asiata is tough to keep on your bench.
He’s gone for touchdowns in three consecutive games, giving him the 24th-most points in the last four weeks, sending him to low-end RB2 value.
So it might be tempting to put him in the lineup, considering he’s generated at least seven fantasy points in six of the last seven games, but you can’t trust him.
The volume just isn’t there.
He hasn’t reached 10 carries since week 8 and his biggest rushing yardage output is 27 in the last four games. The Vikings’ offensive line is atrocious and it will struggle mightily against Dallas’ top-five rushing defense.
You may be banging your head against a wall by not starting Asiata in recent weeks, but without the volume, there’s no way you can trust him in that spot. Keep him on your bench. It’s the smartest strategy going forward.
Tim Hightower vs. Detroit Lions
Hightower and Ingram have made a pretty good 1-2 punch as of late.
Hightower has more than 100 yards from scrimmage in four of the last five games for a hot New Orleans offense. The Saints are currently only one of a few teams that can handle two fantasy running backs and Hightower has done well on the ground and through the air.
But that relationship ends in week 13 against a Detroit defense that can stop the run. The Lions own a top-half rushing defense, while being absolutely horrendous at times against opposing quarterbacks. Drew Brees should have a solid outing, but I’m not backing two running backs this week.
Hightower’s final stats were great in week 12, but he hauled in a long touchdown pass on a trick play and went for a long run on the game’s final possession with the game well in hand. Ingram is the better fantasy play and Hightower won’t have enough volume to score in fantasy this week.
