Slowly, but surely, Andrew Luck is starting to show why he was a semi-sleeper heading into the fantasy football season.
Many prognosticators had him at the tail-end of the top-five quarterbacks in fantasy, putting him in that third to fourth round in fantasy. And now he’s starting to produce like the quarterback we expected last year.
He led all quarterbacks in points in fantasy points in week 7. In the last three weeks, he’s been in the top-10 among quarterbacks, and now has the fifth-highest total in the last four weeks.
What’s important is that he’s not putting up massive numbers one week, only to see those disappear a next. He’s starting to steady himself in an offense that depends on him to move the chains. Going forward, he may be the best quarterback to have on your fantasy roster.
For those quarterbacks who are more inconsistent, here’s the week 8 quarterbacks start ’em, sit ’em guide.
Start
Andy Dalton vs. Washington Redskins
We’ve all been down on the red rifle, but we should really reconsider that stance.
Dalton went for his third straight effort of more than 20 fantasy points in week 7 against Cleveland. He has a TD to interception ratio of 8:2 and has put up more than 290 yards passing in four of seven games.
If anyone else was putting up those numbers, we’d be clamoring for him to be a top starter. But since it’s Dalton, the fantasy world ignores those facts.
Don’t ignore those numbers against Washington. The Redskins just allowed Matthew Stafford to go for 17 fantasy points and they haven’t been great against the pass this season.
The Redskins allow opposing quarterbacks to go for more than a 66 percent completion rate, a bottom-10 number among NFL defenses. Dalton has been helped by the Bengals sudden lack of defense, forcing him into more passing situations.
That should be the case once again in week 8.
Russell Wilson vs. New Orleans Saints
Who would have thought we’d come to this point? Wilson has been less than pedestrian as a signal caller this season after being a preseason top-three fantasy option.
And you’d think I was waking up and starting him after a late, booze-filled night at the local bar. Did you watch that effort in week 7?
But I’m not giving up just yet on Wilson. That offensive line is horrendous, but New Orleans is so bad on defense that Wilson should have some room to maneuver. That’s a rivalry game against Arizona and sometimes when the offense just doesn’t get going, it’s impossible to start as the game progresses.
So with a new week, I’m backing Wilson to go for solid fantasy value. The Saints own a bottom-three pass defense and are third-worst in the NFL in sacks.
Without pressure, the Saints won’t be able to stop Wilson consistently like Atlanta and Arizona have done in recent weeks. Wilson gets back to his past form and should be started.
Brock Osweiler vs. Detroit Lions
OK, let’s say you owned Ben Roethlisberger and replaced him with Eli Manning in week 7. Uh oh, week 8 means you don’t have a quarterback at your disposal.
Then you scour the waiver wire and don’t see a quarterback who could have even held a clipboard 15 years ago. This is scraping at the bottom of the barrel, but Osweiler gives you a chance if you’re in a pinch for week 8.
He’s not very good. There’s no denying that. But Detroit’s secondary is terrible and it is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 75 percent of passes (way above any other team in the NFL), and is giving up QBR’s of 117, also by far the worst number in the NFL.
Osweiler will be at home and still has weapons. And even though I have dismissed Osweiler’s ability to be a good quarterback, he has faced some tough defenses this season. He’s not worth starting over a proven option, but if you’re in the bye blues, he’s worth an add.
Sit
Philip Rivers vs. Denver Broncos
If you have a better option on the bench, I would sit Rivers.
His worst game of the season came against Denver on a Thursday night two weeks ago, and I doubt he’ll get much better in week 8. The Chargers always play the Broncos well, but that doesn’t mean Rivers will go for major points.
The best that he can do is be efficient and move the chains, much like he did earlier this season. The Broncos are just too good of a defense to allow quarterbacks to do much damage, leaving Rivers in a difficult situation.
What also makes matters worse is Rivers’ inability to take care of the football at times. He has three fumbles this season and four interceptions.
When you’re just hoping for your quarterback not to turn the ball over and to attempt to go over 200 yards, he’s not going to be pay dividends for your fantasy roster. That’s where we’re at with Rivers against Denver.
Tyrod Taylor vs. New England Patriots
You could do a lot worse in fantasy football than Taylor this season. He’s gone for double-digits in fantasy every week since week 2 and went over 20 points for the second time this season in week 7 against Miami.
And the last time these two teams faced, Taylor was decent with 16.64 fantasy points.
That won’t happen in week 8. New England is out for blood and the Bills are the lone team to beat them this season. Bill Belichick will make sure that doesn’t happen again, so that means it will be a long day for Taylor.
Taylor is tough to trust with his inability to go for big passing yards. He has to score touchdowns to make a mark in fantasy. I don’t anticipate the Bills crossing the goal line much in this game, so Taylor is out as an option.
Matthew Stafford vs. Houston Texans
These are the games that Houston comes to play. The Texans don’t do very well against the elite. But they can beat teams similar to them in talent level.
Detroit has been a good story so far in 2016, winning close games and showcasing a solid offense. But the home show is over (they’ve played three straight home games). It’s back to the road, where the team has struggled this season.
Detroit is 1-2 on the road, and two of those games were ugly for the majority of time. Stafford also hasn’t been a high volume passer in recent weeks. He’s gone for big totals, but he’s been too touchdown dependent, going for seven touchdowns in weeks 5 and 6.
He has not put up more than 300 yards since week 3, and against Houston, he likely won’t hit that threshold again. The Texans deploy the second-best pass defense in the NFL, allowing 189 yards per game. They also have sacked opposing quarterbacks 16 times this season.
The pressure will get to Stafford, and if you can afford it, then bench him for week 8.
