There’s nothing better than having a nice stable of running backs on board for your fantasy football team. There’s so few consistent running backs in the NFL nowadays that having two, and possibly even three full-time running backs, is a rarity for many fantasy football owners.
The key to finding a solid group of backs, though, is drafting well and getting a little lucky. Last year, luck was on my side as I picked up back-up Dallas Cowboys running back Darren McFadden late in the fantasy football draft. He turned out to be my Flex and contributed RB1 points on a weekly basis.
That was part luck and a decent move. The Cowboys have the best offensive line in football and despite McFadden’s downturn toward the end of his career, he was still battling it out with Joseph Randle, before Randle went completely off the rails.
When looking at depth, finding those teams with solid offensive lines and a desire to run the ball are good places to start for attracting value.
For this exercise, though, I’m looking at predicted RB2 players who can make a move to RB1 status by year’s end.
Thomas Rawls, 14th ranked ADP
This is an easy prediction to make, but a far more difficult trigger to pull if drafting the Seattle Seahawks heir apparent Marshawn Lynch. Rawls has been injured throughout the preseason. That’s making me nervous about his chances of being the lone wolf in the Seahawks backfield.
If he is a three-down back, or at least a running back who gets the lion’s share of playing time, he will be a RB1. The Seahawks will continue to focus on the run, no matter who is in the backfield. He won’t be Lynch, but he was more than competent when he filled in for Lynch last season.
But if he’s not the featured back and he splits carries with Christine Michael, then he’s not going to even be in the RB2 discussion. So there’s plenty of risk with Rawls, but there’s a major reward if you get it right.
Carlos Hyde, 15th ranked ADP
Hyde doesn’t have the ceiling that Rawls does, but his basement is far less intimidating. At best, you’re getting a running back that flourishes in Chip Kelly’s system and the offense isn’t as bad as everyone predicts in San Francisco.
At worst, as long as he doesn’t get hurt, he’s the No. 1 option for the 49ers, but produces more like a Flex option, with a few touchdowns here and there, and some dud weeks thrown in every now and then.
That risk is worth the gamble, especially with Hyde going off with an ADP of 35. Kelly’s offense has been kind at times to running backs in the past. During the preseason, Hyde has been a three-down back, even attracting some passes out of the backfield. If that keeps up in the regular season, he’s a can’t miss RB2, with the potential of being a low-end RB1.
Latavius Murray, 17th ranked ADP
Last year was supposed to be Murray’s breakout season. Despite gobbling up the third-most carries in the NFL with 266, he turned in the 10th-most fantasy points among running backs.
He got the ball, but he averaged only 4 yards a carry, the same number as my favorite potential bust, Devonta Freeman. The difference between Murray and Freeman is the hype, with Freeman with an ADP of 14 and Murray with an ADP of 39. Oh, and the teams are heading in opposite directions.
The Falcons will trail a lot this season, forcing more passes, while the Raiders should play from ahead more often than normal, allowing Murray the opportunity for even more carries and opportunities.
Having him as an RB2 or even a Flex would give fantasy owners plenty of flexibility at the running back position. Murray has a revamped offensive line in front of him and a defense that should necessitate plenty of carries.
