Derrick Henry provided his final exclamation point on the 2018 fantasy football season.
Henry, who was supposed to be a viable fantasy starter in the preseason, turned in pretty much a dud for 2018 until exploding in the first round of the fantasy football playoffs, with 47 fantasy points. The only problem with that performance is that he was likely on pretty much every fantasy owner’s bench, and likely caused plenty to miss out on the semifinal round.
It’s not often to have a running back turn in that performance on the fantasy bench, but Henry has been a tough one to prognosticate during his career. Here’s the week 15 fantasy football start ’em, sit ’em guide for running backs.
Start
Gus Edwards vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It wasn’t a highly productive day in week 14 for Edwards against Kansas City, but the volume was nice to see.
Edwards won’t do much in the passing game, so he can’t be counted on as a three-down running back. But he’s free to be an integral piece of the Ravens offense with a mobile quarterback at the helm.
Edwards has 16 or more carries in each of the last four games. He has more than 80 yards rushing in three of those four games.
Tampa Bay is a bottom-10 defense in allowing fantasy points per game to running backs. The Ravens will run often against Tampa Bay, so expect plenty of volume for Edwards.
Doug Martin vs. Cincinnati Bengals
This comes down to a couple of factors.
Despite being pretty unproductive, Martin has been getting solid volume in recent weeks. He hast a combined 34 carries in the last two weeks.
And in this week’s matchup, volume will create productivity. The Bengals are the worst team in the NFL in allowing fantasy points per game to running backs in the last four weeks. It’s so bad, Cincinnati actually allows six more fantasy points per game than the team allowing the second-most.
Martin has a touchdown in each of the last three games, so expect his productivity to rise in this week 15 matchup.
David Johnson vs. Atlanta Falcons
Johnson has been a disappointment this year in fantasy football, based on his Average Draft Position.
It’s not all Johnson’s fault. There has been some serious question marks regarding his playing time and the Arizona offensive line is probably the worst in the NFL. There are no holes available and the passing game doesn’t do enough to create any space.
Johnson is stuck on a team unable to open any holes or do anything on the offensive side of the ball. Despite all the problems, I still like his matchup in week 15, where he can get on track. The Falcons are a bottom-five defense in fantasy points allowed to running backs this season.
Atlanta is terrible on the defensive side of the ball, so Johnson and the offense should have some opportunities.
Sit
Adrian Peterson vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
On one side of the coin, it would make sense for Peterson to have increased value. The Redskins don’t have a quarterback.
The problem is that if Arizona has the worst offensive line, the Redskins are a close second. And that’s not entirely Washington’s fault. The offensive line has been hampered consistently by injury problems.
And that will hurt Peterson once again in this contest, even with no quarterback to occupy any production from a fantasy perspective.
Peterson has 10 carries for just 16 yards in week 14. That should continue against in week 15.
LeSean McCoy vs. Detroit Lions
How can you trust McCoy?
I’ve avoided McCoy like the plague in recent years, but fell for his lower-than-normal ADP in this year’s fantasy football draft.
He’s been terrible. And worse yet, he barely can make it through games. McCoy was not available for the majority of the week 14 contest against the New York Jets, and now he’s struggling with injuries in the preparation for this uninteresting matchup.
McCoy has his moments every once in awhile, but they’re not enough to trust in week 15.
Marlon Mack vs. Dallas Cowboys
The volume is fine, but this matchup just doesn’t work.
Mack has generated volume in recent weeks, but his yardage output has fallen off dramatically. That will once again be a problem in week 15 against a Cowboys team that is among the best teams in the NFL against the run.
Mack has 22 carries for 60 yards in the last two weeks. The Cowboys are giving up the second-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs at just 10 points per game.
Mack had his moments during part of this season, but I’d skip him for this week.
