If the first three weeks are going to be an indicator for the fantasy football season, then Todd Gurley and Kareem Hunt owners are going to be two of the biggest steals of the season.
Gurley was the consensus No. 1 running back last season, only to be one of the biggest busts of 2016. Hunt was playing at Toledo last season and wouldn’t have even gotten this opportunity had it not been for an injury in the preseason to Spencer Ware.
Both weren’t drafted in the first round of fantasy football drafts, but both are now at the top of the fantasy football scoring list among running backs. They’re obvious starts for week 4. For the ones on the fringe, here’s the week 4 running backs start ’em, sit ’em guide in fantasy football.
Start
Jacquizz Rodgers vs. New York Giants
Rodgers was terrible in week 3 against a tough Minnesota front. That disappointing start came a week after a nice effort in week 2 against Chicago.
So who’s the real Rodgers? Probably something in-between. Tampa Bay completely abandoned its running backs in week 3 against Minnesota after the Vikings jumped to an early lead. That left Rodgers to only receiving five carries.
That won’t happen against the New York Giants. The Giants won’t get off to a big lead, and chances are the Buccaneers will have an opportunity at milking the clock during the contest. That works well for Rodgers, who is still the main running back in an offense without starter Doug Martin for another week.
The Giants are allowing 153 yards on the ground per game and allowed Philadelphia to actually look halfway decent in that department in week 3. That’s an issue that likely won’t get better with another road game for the Giants.
Isaiah Crowell vs. Cincinnati Bengals
It’s tempting to make Crowell more of a Flex/bench option for week 4. He’s been disappointing in the early season so far, with the Browns trailing pretty much from the opening whistle in every game.
That has actually lifted Duke Johnson’s value more in fantasy and limiting Crowell’s ability to churn out fantasy points. This week, despite playing a Bengals defense that has been pretty good, I’m siding with Crowell. I believe the Browns will actually win this game, so I’m probably in the minority. And I believe Crowell will get back on track.
While the Bengals are good on defense, the rushing defense hasn’t been good, allowing 130 yards per game. Despite the diminished production in the early going, Crowell is still getting decent volume in terms of snaps and carries for a team in constant catchup.
Believe in the Browns this week, which means Crowell should snap out of his funk.
Joe Mixon vs. Cleveland Browns
Week 3 finally belonged to Mixon and he showed why he deserved to start in the first place.
He carried the ball 18 times for 62 yards and caught all three of his targets. He has consistently outplayed fellow backfield mates Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard, and he finally was the main man in week 3. That should continue into week 4 against a Cleveland team that doesn’t scare me against the run.
Mixon will finally see the volume we anticipated before the season began. He’s more than just a Flex option for this game. Feel comfortable with putting him as your second running back.
Sit
New Orleans timeshare vs. Miami Dolphins
We have enough evidence this season to prove what many hypothesized in the preseason. New Orleans is a quagmire for running backs in fantasy football.
Adrian Peterson, Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara are basically in an equal timeshare. That spells doom no matter what the matchup is for the week.
I anticipated this to be a problem before the season began and so far nobody has emerged as the go-to back. Ingram probably deserves more action, but Peterson will demand some carries as a backup. And Kamara is more of a pass-catching back, but he’s definitely the third option in this committee.
You may have to start one of them in a bye week, but if you can avoid it, make sure these Saints stay on your bench.
Bilal Powell vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
I’m not entirely sure what to make of the Jaguars rush defense. On one hand, they’ve been dominant in two of three weeks. In the other week, though, they were torched against a solid Tennessee rushing attack.
In those two weeks where they were dominant, it was mostly due to game flow, so it’s tempting to possibly back Powell in this game. But that wouldn’t be the best decision. He saw his volume increase in week 3, but that was thanks to Matt Forte’s injury, which doesn’t seem serious.
Even with the expanded workload, Powell still had to share some of the carries. The Jets have been bad at running the football and I anticipate the Jaguars to dominate up front in this contest. That should keep any Jets running back at bay, especially Powell, who hasn’t looked good yet. Keep him on the bench and hope for some better production later in the season.
Marshawn Lynch vs. Denver Broncos
The Broncos may not be as great as they have been in the past, but it’s definitely not a wise decision to start a a non-dominant running back against them in fantasy football.
Lynch crashed back to earth with the rest of the Raiders in week 3, with six carries for 18 yards.
The Raiders have long abandoned the run in favor of passing too much in the past. That should be the case once again in week 4 when they face the best rush defense in the league, giving up less than 60 yards per game on the ground. The Broncos are so good on the ground, they’ve silenced LeSean McCoy and Ezekiel Elliott in consecutive weeks.
At this point, it’s almost necessary to fade any running back against the Broncos with the way they can load up on the front seven. Make sure to keep Lynch on the sidelines this week.
