Every once in awhile experts are right. While measuring ADP versus consensus rankings, we can decipher when those experts are right, and when the public is wrong.
Here’s three fantasy football running backs that the experts are getting right, while the public is missing the mark.
Jay Ajayi, Miami Dolphins
ADP: RB9; Rankings: RB6
The public is way off with this prediction. I get the notion that Ajayi has that one-hit wonder vibe, but there’s no reason why he should be falling short of players like DeMarco Murray or a suspended Ezekiel Elliott.
The top-five running backs are pretty much set in stone, with David Johnson, Le’Veon Bell, LeSean McCoy, Devonta Freeman and Melvin Gordon occupying the top spots. Most of them deserve that recognition (however, I’m not sold on Freeman).
After that, it gets a bit murkier, but it doesn’t mean Ajayi should be below the previously mentioned running backs. Murray is an injury liability and Elliott is going to miss pretty much half the season.
Ajayi is still a three-down running back on a team committed to running the football. That should be even more apparent with Jay Cutler leading the way at the quarterback position. Ajayi was a machine when offered the opportunity last season, so I’m banking on close to the same production this season.
There’s some risk because of that one-hit wonder status, but he should be competing with Jordan Howard for that sixth spot, not Elliott or Murray.
Isaiah Crowell, Cleveland Browns
ADP: RB15; Rankings: RB12
The public is scared of the Cleveland Browns. I am too. We all are.
But Crowell is going to be out there for three downs, catching passes and running the rock on first and second downs.
The amount of touches he should garner this year puts him in that RB1 category, giving him solid value in fantasy football drafts. The public is putting him behind Christian McCaffrey, who we have no idea what he’ll do this season.
They’re also backing Marshawn Lynch, who hasn’t played in a year on a team that hasn’t shown me anything to justify solid running back fantasy football rankings. Crowell has upped his touches each year in the league and has improved dramatically in the passing game. He went from 19 receptions in 2015 to 40 receptions in 2016.
If those numbers can continue to climb, along with going over 200 attempts for the first time in his career, Crowell can be a player who pays major dividends in the third round of the fantasy football draft.
LeGarrette Blount, Philadelphia Eagles
ADP: RB28; Rankings: RB31
Everybody’s wrong. Blount is on my undraftable list. There’s more than just rumblings coming out of Philadelphia camp that he may not even start.
He’s a prime candidate for being remembered as one of those New England players who can’t make it for another team. The public is going way off the deep-end, putting him even near the RB2 category.
Last season, when Blount was a fantasy surprise, he was doing it with touchdowns only, something we can’t guarantee from year-to-year. From weeks 8 to 17 in 2016, Blount tallied one game of more than 100 yards rushing, but he had at least one touchdown in seven of those final nine games.
That can’t be replicated. I long ago predicted him as a Flex option, but after seeing what he’s doing in the preseason, I’m completely fading him, no matter what price you pick him with.
