The once highly regarded AFC North has fallen on some hard times.
The Ravens haven’t been as good as anticipated and the Bengals have drifted into rough waters without an offensive identity. Oh, and Cleveland can’t seem to win a game.
Other than Pittsburgh, this division couldn’t get anything going offensively in 2017. Will that change in 2018? Here’s the best bets for NFL win totals in the AFC North. Last year, I was awful in the North, going 0-3-1 in win totals.
Baltimore Ravens, over/under 8.5
Here’s your typical Ravens win total mark. The Ravens are good enough to win eight games, but can they get over that mark?
Defensively, Baltimore will be really good again, but I have some concerns. Thankfully, I owned Baltimore’s defense in fantasy football last year and it was unbelievable in scoring touchdowns. Baltimore averaged 0.3 touchdowns per game on defense in 2017, just 0.1 behind Jacksonville for the best in the NFL.
In the NFL, that has a way of leveling out. And unlike Jacksonville, I’m not sure how dominant the Ravens were on defense other than scoring touchdowns. Baltimore was good, but not dominant enough to withstand a terrible offense, which ranked 31st in yards per play.
I see some more balance in this division in 2018, so I’m banking on the Ravens taking a step back. — Verdict: Under
Cincinnati Bengals, over/under 5.5
Where’s the love for the Bengals?
The main issue is that Marvin Lewis is still at the helm and Andy Dalton is the quarterback. However, even with those issues, there is some talent on this roster.
Defensively, they were every bit as good as Baltimore, other than scoring touchdowns. And offensively, they were actually better than the Ravens.
A.J. Green is still one of the better wide receivers in the NFL and Joe Mixon is an emerging running back. There’s weapons all over the place for Dalton and the defense is good enough to keep the Bengals in some games. There’s no reason why the Bengals should have three less wins than the Ravens in projected win totals. Feel confident in this pick. — Verdict: Over
Cleveland Browns, over/under 4.5
Regrettably I took the over last year with the Browns. That obviously didn’t pan out.
So, I’m not going to learn my lesson and double down on a better effort. I’ve talked about this before, but the Browns are legit at the wide receiver position. And they got better at the running back position in the offseason.
Defensively, the Browns need a lot of work, but this defense was young last year and should be better. The Browns weren’t as bad as the record indicates. They need to create more breaks, but they made enough moves in the offseason to warrant better expectations. I’ll take a flier on the over in this one. — Verdict: Over
Pittsburgh Steelers, over/under 10.5
Talent-wise, there’s not a team in this division that can match up with the Steelers. And other than the New England Patriots, I’m not sure there’s another team in the AFC that can play with Pittsburgh.
However, there’s an attitude brewing on this team that is teetering too close to allowing them to fall apart. Le’Veon Bell is once again a distraction and Ben Roethlisberger also has inserted his name into the news in the offseason.
Defensively, there’s a lot of ability, but the Steelers still finished in the bottom-half of the NFL in yards per play allowed. The wheels are going to fall off soon for the Steelers, so is this the year?
The fact that I’m asking that question is enough for me to bet against Pittsburgh. — Verdict: Under
